每日新闻更新 — 中国指数的纳入和人民币的国际化 The Daily Update – China index inclusion and renminbi internationalisation

今年,在全球指数中对债券市场给以更多且更好的代表仍然是一个重要的主题。例如,我们曾重点报道过,从2019年1月开始巴林、科威特、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋将被分期分批地纳入摩根大通全球多元化新兴市场债券指数(EMBI-GD),以及这样做如何有助于激发投资者更大的兴趣并吸引他们进入海湾合作委员会地区。但同样重要的是,中国国内债券市场应该在全球指数中得到更多的代表:2019年4月,彭博巴克莱全球综合指数将开始把人民币计价的在岸中国政府债券和政策性银行债券包含在内。

在20个多月的时间中将有364个在岸中国债券被纳入该指数,估计中国在彭博全球综合指数中的权重在完成时(2020年11月)将上升至6.1%,预计人民币债券将成为第四大货币组成部分。据估计,完全被纳入指数后可能会吸引大约1500亿美元的资金流入:中国13万亿美元的债券市场为第三大债券市场,而外国持股仅占该市场的2%,显示出该市场在投资组合中代表性不足。预计这一趋势还会持续下去,因为预计富时罗素将审查是否将中国政府债券纳入其世界政府债券指数之内;预计摩根大通也将对是否要把当地货币中国政府债券要纳入(JPM GBI EM-GD指数)进行审查。

我们继续预期,更大的指数包含和改善的市场准入将支持投资者对中国的注资,并强调人民币持续国际化的观点。年初至今,离岸人民币兑美元(即期回报)升值2.29%,总回报率(在撰写本文时)升值3.1%,我们预计,在中期内人民币兑美元将继续升值。撇开态度更加温和的美联储不谈,美元走高的时机仍然有点棘手,但在美中贸易陷入僵局之时,若能达成协议,对人民币有可能是一种支持。  美元在主要货币中的收益率相对较高,尤其是在欧洲经济增长疲软以及有些不确定因素正在推动欧洲央行保持宽松政策立场的情况下,而且日本央行行长黑田东彦也强调,在必要时不排除采取进一步的宽松政策。

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