每日新闻更新 — 沙特阿美发债券了,快走!(第二部分) The Daily Update – Go Go Aramco (Part Two)

我们昨天在沙特阿美公司首次发行债券之前发表了评论,该债券最终以低于主权债券的价差进入市场:10年期那一批的价格仅比美国国债高出105个基点(相比之下,高出沙特政府债券117个基点),五批次的发行总额增加至120亿美元,高于最初计划的100亿美元。相对于更广范围的其他投资,市场显然被这种来自评级高且利润丰厚的实体的这样好的收益所吸引。我们的价值监测显示,与典型的A1评级债券相比,该发行价格只有1.3级别那么便宜,但与主权国家债券相比,价格仍然高出半个级别,成为这次历史性登台的一部分。

当然,投资者在看价格的时候仍然需要把地缘政治和政治风险考虑在内,包括政府如何精明地利用未来的盈利能力来维持一个幸福的公民身份,并继续努力实现他们对“2030愿景”目标:虽然无法实现,但朝着正确的方向迈出了雄心勃勃的一步。在这种情况持续的情况下,市场应继续看到沙特阿拉伯的价值,任何趋势变化都可能提供大量的显示信贷指标恶化的早期指标。事实上,委内瑞拉的“饥饿债券”令人痛苦地提醒大家,有些事情可以变化得非常可怕,但多年来,该国仍然看到了履行义务以便为勇敢的投资者敞开大门是多么有益:这些人希望未来的政府有朝一日能够有效地调动资源并偿还他们那些可憎的债务。尽管这两个国家都拥有巨大的自然资源储备,但委内瑞拉和沙特可谓是冰火两重天。最近,委内瑞拉只能通过进一步借贷和忽视国内基本需求来偿还债务利息,直到2017年的后期再次违约。从那时起,对于债券持有人而言,这是一场徒劳的战争,对于委内瑞拉的人民来说也是一场人道主义的危机。与此形成鲜明对比的是,沙特长期以来一直有效地从其积蓄中获利(尽管加瓦尔油田的产量低于预期的每天380万桶),并且是一个拥有明确未来投资计划的7星级净外国债权国。

几个月前,我们强调了沙特阿美进一步发展天然气业务的雄心壮志的一个例子,其中包括从美国到俄罗斯再到澳大利亚的合作伙伴关系。这可能是这些资金要供给的一条途径,但这些富裕且有利可图的实体发行债务的首要原因几乎总是因为谋求多样化。既然是债权国,那为什么还要借钱?很多人都会有这样的问题;但正是因为他们拥有如此多的积蓄的资源,他们才希望通过提供将来的现金流来实现多元化。与那些债务国(借钱主要用来为消费提供资金)不同,沙特(包括通过阿美石油和其他准主权国家债券)继续借贷:它实际上可以改善该国的经济健康和金融稳定,因为通过战略多元化投资的手段它可以最大限度地减少该国遭受油价不稳的影响。凭借坚定的计划和偿还义务的能力,具有“AAA评级公司特征”的A1级准主权债券明显提供了价值,市场对它大规模的超额订购便是最好的证明。

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