每日新闻更新 — 把里拉关禁闭 The Daily Update – Lira lockdown

在过去3天里,土耳其的隔夜掉期利率已经从约23%上升至100%,继而达到360%,今天早些时候已经触及1300%以上。这一点加上对货币市场的直接干预目前看来足以让卖空和套利交易者在本周末的地方选举之前退出,此举被视为支持埃尔多安(Erdogan)权威的代理行为。许多人一直在预计,到选举前几天这样的货币运作还会重复一次,特别是在摩根大通上周敦促投资者抛售里拉,导致该货币在上周五盘中下跌7%的背景下。但正如土耳其调查摩根大通对市场操纵一样,埃尔多安也提醒投资者,他们自己也已经做好了操纵货币的准备,并采用这种前所未有的干预措施大大地修复了上周五疲软的里拉。

一些人将流动性紧缩描述为“模仿中国对货币进行操纵的做法”来说明国家对银行的影响程度有多么地大;但在外汇储备方面,土耳其中央银行明显地要远远低于中国人民银行。在上周公布的数据显示土耳其央行在动用外汇储备之后,土耳其央行已经被认为在选举之前支撑着里拉。3月份的前两周,外汇储备在减少了63亿美元之后到了285亿美元,远远超过应支付的38亿美元硬通货债务,这种差异最有可能最终导致里拉的流出。

去年9月,土耳其的官方利率上调至24%,诱使市场进入里拉,无论是高利率,还是将此视为土耳其央行有能力反对强人埃尔多安呼吁以廉价信贷填补经济的独立的标志。这足以缓解人们对该国陷入衰退以及当年8月份之前货币贬值50%的担忧。从那时起的七个月里,交易怎么能不好,里拉不仅是新兴市场最强硬的货币,而且外加套利,收益率已经高达30-40%。但这些干预措施正在让外国投资者陷入一种可疑的困境。

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