每日新闻更新 — 石油、欧佩克+和《打击原油生产、出口垄断组织法案》 The Daily Update – Oil, OPEC+ and NOPEC

目前布伦特原油交易价格约为每桶71.41美元,年初至今已经提高了32.75%,因此唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)再次打开推特来表达他对价格过高的不满只是一个时间的问题。周二的美国石油协会(API)的报告显示,上周美国原油库存下降,本来的预期为增加,这表明市场在进一步收紧。周三的能源信息管理局(EIA)的数据也显示原油库存在下降,这是四周以来的首次下降。

欧佩克+自今年1月起同意每天减产120万桶,试图将价格稳定在较高水平,加上美国对委内瑞拉和伊朗的制裁,以及委内瑞拉的经济崩溃,所有这些因素似乎已经使得供应一边已经收紧。除此之外,还有因战斗爆发而导致利比亚生产中断的风险。

显然,6月份欧佩克+对减产的评估将成为市场的主要推动力,而俄罗斯对石油价格的看法也将成为欧佩克+决策中的一个重要因素。俄罗斯目前的环境是积极的,预算收支平衡的油价水平远低于目前的这个水平。沙特阿拉伯似乎对接近每桶80美元的水平才会感到满意,这可能反映出他们的预算收支平衡的油价较高,在80-85美元区间。弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)4月9日在“北极论坛”上发表的评论引起了人们的兴趣,他认为现在做出决定还为时尚早:“就今天来讲,目前的情况还是适合我们的,但我们将与合作伙伴一起密切关注市场的走向,我们的合作伙伴主要是沙特阿拉伯和海湾国家等主要石油生产国。我们一致认为,如果需要合作,我们将在下半年开会并进行讨论。”

白宫将于5月审查是否取消对伊朗原油的制裁,但需要考虑更为收紧的市场和欧佩克+6月份对生产的回顾。同样,欧佩克需要注意到《打击原油生产、出口垄断组织法案》(NOPEC)的威胁,这是一项反垄断法案,已获众议院司法委员会的批准,随后将由整个众议院进行投票表决。不过,一直令人怀疑的是,该法案是不是能够被制定成法律,因为之前的几次尝试都已经失败,而且有报道指出,沙特阿拉伯有一些反杠杆措施,因为他们可以考虑用美元以外的货币进行石油交易。

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