每日新闻更新 — 信心尚未恢复,却遇高点回归 The Daily Update – Renewed Highs Without Renewed Confidence

4个月(几乎一天都不差)过去,标准普尔500指数的熊市缩水已经反转。在2018年,从9月末的高峰期一直到最终成为一个出售股票的节礼日(12月26日),标准普尔500指数的跌幅超过了20%。圣诞节前后有三个低迷的交易日,价格有5%的上下波动,除此之外,美国股市在经历了另一轮强势收益之后,已经稳步收回损失至昨日触及2936的新高。

尽管该指数创历史新高,但标准普尔500指数成分股中(505个中的13个)只有2.6%的成份股处于本股个体的历史高位,这表明市场的驱使力量来自于集中选择表现出色股而不是基于更大范围内的繁荣。表现优异的只是那些顺周期性科技股和非必需消费品股票,这种情况的主要例子是推特和孩之宝,它们昨天获得积极的意外盈利,上涨了15.4%和14.2%。

在这整个过程中,股市的交易数量和市场情绪仍然保持低迷。即使标准普尔500指数目前已经处于伸手可得的3000的里程碑处(2.2%),但几乎没有迹象表明典型的可以支持股市泡沫说法的那种兴奋情绪。随着未来几天进一步的收益报告的到来,该指数很有可能进入甚至超出不曾预料到的3000的水平。但是,鉴于这些水平在2018年经过两次测试后最终还是下降了12%和20%,再次出现的可能性是,越来越多的信心不足的股权所有者若发现哪怕是一点点的不快或者波动回升,就会放弃原来的打算。

如果缺乏信念确实是一个使市场在动荡面前变得更加脆弱的因素的话,那么作为促使步伐敏捷的资产所有人的群体不断扩张的催化剂,一个可以通过“TINA”交易(即“没有其他选择”的交易)推动股市走高的不断膨胀的货币基础(伴随着信贷的停滞增长)和大规模、贪婪的、投机性的歇斯底里同样可以奏效。因此,虽然我们发现一些更大范围的安慰,即几乎看不到泡沫心态的典型迹象,但我们仍然可以看到谨慎对待股市的原因,股市对于尝试性(不太情愿的)股民来说仍有一点脆弱。

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.