每日新闻更新 — 上海车展与电动汽车的供需(上)The Daily Update – Shanghai Motor Show and Electric Vehicle Supply and Demand (Part One)

今天,世界上最大汽车市场中的最大车展之一,当然是上海车展,拉开了帷幕。像阿斯顿·马丁的 Rapide E 这样的新车在车展中亮相, 这是他们第一款电动汽车,这款600马力的车型在这个日益扩大的市场中成为特斯拉的另一个竞争者。吉利在展会上也证实像莲花130型“电动超级跑车”这样的汽车已经问世在即,吉利就是去年买下莲花多数股权的中国制造商。此次展会也提醒人们,中国品牌在过去几年中已经实现了加速发展:不仅仅是在路上,还有制造和供应链方面的成就。这些成就与政府激励措施相结合帮助中国电动汽车的供需达到了同时增长,并在这些看似全球电动车革命的形成时期给予了它们潜在的市场优势。

中国品牌比亚迪(BYD)、吉利(Geely)、蔚来(Nio)和魏派(Wey)都在展会上推出了新的电动汽车,它们将在欧洲以及亚洲销售。去年,中国制造商生产和销售的电动汽车的汽车数量超过世界其他地区的总和。与此同时,当汽车行业悄然转向数字化之时(就像相机和手机行业一样),像大众这样的成熟汽车公司犹如躺在车轮旁边睡大觉的司机一样仍旧落后于这些新的制造商。然而,这些行业巨头的综合品牌和供应链情报是否会让它们重新处于领先地位还有待观察:特斯拉等公司仍在努力应对供应问题,而品牌和认知的阻力可能会持续存在于全球市场中的中国公司。例如,大众必须让其 MEB 平台的设计、成本和生产,并且他们的新系列汽车接近完美,以便最有可能重新夺回市场份额。因此,今年随着这些更大且更成熟的品牌的升级生产,我们将开始看他们是否能够通过价格和促销回归市场。

除了新老西方汽车制造商外,中国的目标是在十年内每年销售1500万辆电动汽车,并在五年内跻身该市场内全球顶级行业领导者的行列。此外,特斯拉正在上海建造其最新和最大的合并后的“Gigafactory 3”(超大工厂3),有可能在今年年底前开始生产。如果有远见的伊隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)等人对于他们的生产过程有如此多的热情和决心,如果中国能够实现他们的生产目标,如果那些老牌制造商的新工厂投入生产,那么这个世界很快就到处跑的都是电动汽车。随着特斯拉不断提高生产效率,随着中国逐渐建立起品牌声誉,随着成熟的汽车制造商加大最近已经开始的投资力度,那么对电动车需求的路径预测将会怎样?还是等明天的分解吧。

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