每日新闻更新 — 上海车展与电动汽车的供需(下)The Daily Update – Shanghai Motor Show and Electric Vehicle Supply and Demand (Part Two)

上海车展的召开给了我们谈论电动车市场一个很好的借口,昨天我们对电动汽车的供应以及随着三项因素(最少)的发展趋于成熟我们在未来几年内有可能看到它的加速发展做了一个简短的评论。接下来让笔者简单聊一聊市场对电动汽车的需求。相对于供应,需求一侧有较少的关键指标,而且这些指标的可靠性也没有那么强,所以预测未来对电动汽车的需求就困难一些。首先,我们最好仔细观察一下推动近期需求的动态(引人注目的是,在中国这个市场发生了最大规模的繁荣),并对那些让这种态势继续升温(或被引入其他市场)的驱动因素以及制约这种趋势发展的潜在因素进行评估。

在政策辅助条件下对电动汽车需求的最明显的一个例子就是限制某些汽车进入北京。该城市对内燃机的限制意味着城外的司机只有使用某些车牌才能进北京城:标价有点夸张的电动汽车符合这个条件,并且还有少量的中奖机会。最近,在参加北京非电动汽车牌照抽奖的1100多万人当中,每5万人就有一个人获得了成功。假设目前的法律和限制仍然存在,人们可以把此设想为仅在北京周边地区的1100万潜在的购买电动汽车的客户。当然,有些人买不起一辆这样的车,但减税和补贴(对制造商和客户而言)使得这种车辆最终要比市场价格便宜三分之一,这样对于那些要在市场上买一辆新车的消费者来说,它就成了优于汽油车或柴油车的有吸引力的选择。伦敦人在有关部门新设定的超低排放区(ULEZ)上周生效之后可能会对这种政策有一种熟悉感,该规定将在几年后扩展到大伦敦的大部分地区,非电动汽车驾驶员平均每天面临12英镑的收费。由于城市污染是一个普遍问题,所以人们可以预期,这些政策会变得越来越普遍,越发使得电动汽车更加适合在城市驾驶。

因为未来几年慷慨的补贴将在中国和许多其他市场受到限制,所以需求也将面临不利因素,我们希望电动汽车的生产成本能够同步下降(尽管许多人也观察到即便最终用户成本相应下降,但相对于一个便宜的价格本身,客户一般会更加在意得到降价销售或者补贴购买。近年来尽管其他消费市场的需求已经下降,但是许多发达国家对(普通)汽车的需求仍然持续高于平均水平。事实上,许多人已经开始关注美国的汽车贷款拖欠问题,尽管利率很低,但最近还是达到了五年来的高点。在更广泛的市场转向电动汽车之前,或许较低的利率会让那些付款集中在前期的买家进入该市场。此外,对后期商业周期的假设和对加息的预期都自然会妨碍这种大额购买。因此,虽然这个市场看起来肯定会增长,但不能确定的是,这种需求是否会跟潜在的供应同步。如果没有足够的环保千禧一代能够获得足够的储蓄(在把预算拨给美食、把巨额的首付用于购买一个微型单元房之后)以便有钱购买最新的电动汽车,电动汽车市场的竞争可能会变得非常激烈。

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.