每日新闻更新 — 特朗普的石油进口豁免 The Daily Update – Trump waivers

白宫昨天证实,他们不会延长豁免对伊朗石油出口的期限,这完全出乎市场的预料。人们普遍认为,这一宣布使得从伊朗进口石油的主要国家 — 中国(61.3万桶/天)、韩国(38.7万桶/天)、印度(25.8万桶/天)— 有可能因为从伊朗进口石油受到二级制裁,并使得石油价格随着供应方面受到限制而继续上升成为可能。

然而,美国还明确指出,沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋已经同意,当美国5月2日豁免的期限结束时同意增加供应以抵消伊朗方面的减产。实际上,2019年沙特的石油产量已经削减了约80万桶/天,超出了OPEC(石油输出国组织)+协议中规定的份额,因此开足马力生产的空间仍然高达40万桶/天,而不会超出十二月份协议规定的范围。观察俄罗斯的反应倒会很有意思,因为他们在遵守协议的道路上总是步伐蹒跚,而伊朗产油的缺口可能高达100万桶/天。如上所述,中国、韩国和印度是伊朗石油的最大进口国,都从美国获得了这项豁免,因此眼下会出现一点不稳定。

市场普遍认为,沙特阿拉伯会在伊朗从市场供应撤出后作出被动反应,开始给市场供油,而不是像过去那样积极主动,对于石油定价,这可能是另一个积极因素,使得现在和2018年大不一样。

奇怪的是,特朗普一直对沙特施加压力,让石油保持低价,而这一举措似乎有悖于这一目标的实现。

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