每日新闻更新 — 特爱发推特的特朗普推个不停 The Daily Update – Tweeting Trump Twitters on

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)昨天通过他常用的方法推特加大了对独立的美联储的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的压力。“尽管美联储采取了不必要的破坏性行动,但经济看起来还是非常强劲... ...”

他还告诉自己的心腹,他在最近提名斯蒂芬·摩尔(Stephen Moore)之后,还将提名赫尔曼·凯恩(Herman Cain)进入美联储委员会。摩尔曾公开呼吁立即降息50个基点,但引起纽约时报负面的头条报道,这可能使他难以通过确认程序,尽管有报道说摩尔并“没有下台的打算” 。所以市场推测,凯恩很可能是政府最近一次让联邦公开市场委员会获得一名超级温和委员的尝试,联邦公开市场委员会确实有两个委员席位空缺,总统的目标是让一名会投票立即降息的成员入围。

我们的观点是,即使两位潜在的被提名人员都能进入委员会(看起来令人怀疑),他们可以主张降息甚至提出反对意见,但他们无法改变其余的董事会成员目前暂停加息并在等待进一步的经济证据的立场。

另外,刚公布的数据显示,3月份非农就业人数为19.6万, 仅仅高出17.7万的市场预期一点。然而,由于两个月的净修正值为+1.4万,这使得整体就业人数只比市场预期稍微强一点。令人惊讶的是,平均每小时收入月度环比(增加)0.1%,年度同比增加3.2%,而市场对二者的预期均高出0.2个百分点。失业率稳定在3.8%,参与率也低于0.2个百分点,从预期的63.2%下降至63.0%。

从广义上讲,就整体就业形势而言,这份报告比市场的预期要强一些,但跟上一个三个月平均值19.1万相比,仍然相当于仅为18万的总体就业人数。在通胀方面,新闻报道仍然是积极的,但该报告中没有足够强的力量将价格推向任何一方。在撰写该文时,十年期美国国债的交易价格略高于伦敦上午市场的水平。

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