每日新闻更新 — 人口统计数字和经济增长 The Daily Update – Demographics and Growth

疾病预防控制中心(CDC)对美国出生率和生育率的临时估计突显了美国面临的人口挑战。2018年,美国的出生人数下降2%至378.8万,连续第四年下降,是过去32年来的最低水平。一般生育率从2017年以来也下降了2%,从而触及一个新低水平,每1000名年龄在15-44岁之间的妇女仅生育59人,反映出35岁以下妇女的出生率在下降。

此外,总生育率,即女性一生中生育婴儿的数量,在2018年降至1.7,低于2.1个婴儿的更替水平(就是某特定人口可以正好替代自身人口数量的水平)。实际上,自1971年以来这个指标就一直低于更替水平,正如该报告指出的那样,“在过去的十年中,人口出生水平一直低于替代水平”。这个问题很重要,因为如果没有充足的移民,人口老龄化会限制劳动力的增长,如果没有足够的生产率的增长,潜在的产出增长率就会受到影响。

旧金山联邦储备委员会的高级研究顾问约翰·弗纳尔德(John Fernald)在3月份的评论中指出:“人口统计数据是预计未来经济增长跟以往相比要变得缓慢的最重要的原因。到下个十年的中期,工作年龄人口(16岁至64岁)将以历史最低的速度增长,这反映了婴儿潮一代的老龄化。当然,工作年龄人口并不是一对一地转化为就业;例如,许多64岁以上的人还都在工作,其他群体的劳动参与趋势也在发生着变化。展望未来,美国国会预算办公室预计,美国潜在的劳动力将以大约0.5%的速度增长。这比过去半个世纪的平均速度低了将近一个百分点。”实际上,他还指出,他们估计GDP可持续增长的趋势率为1.7%,这“反映了对劳动力(决定潜在的工作小时数目)和生产力(最广义的概念就是每小时工作产出的实际GDP)的评估”。

如果纵观其他国家,与德国和日本等国家相比,美国的人口统计数据还算不错。一项数据估计,美国人口的平均年龄将在2015年至2050年之间从38年增加到42岁,老龄化问题仍然要比日本和德国的好一些:估计(在这段时间期间)日本和德国的平均年龄将分别为:从47岁增加到53岁,从46岁增加到51年。但是,据联合国统计,2015年至2050年期间,预计世界上48个国家或地区的所有人口(不仅仅是工作年龄人口)将减少。

对我们而言,这强化了我们的观点,即我们正处于低增长时代,中性利率将维持低位,并支撑着曲线长端的利率预期。因此,对收益率的追逐不免还要继续下去,而对于我们来说,以美元计价的债权国的债券所能提供的正收益率仍旧是不容错过的机会。

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