每日新闻更新 — 你真胆大,你真的做了 The Daily Update – Don't you dare, ah you did

在拖延了一段时间之后(有点异常),中国昨晚对上周美国的关税提案做出了回应,要对最高可达600亿美元的进口产品征收25%的关税,生效日期是6月1日,这些关税的范围包括大约2500种美国的出口产品。

奇怪的是,在特朗普总统发布警告要中国不要进行报复之后仅30分钟,中国就发布了这份报复性公告。他还表示,他仍未做出是否要进一步增加额外关税的决定,还说他将在下个月举行的20国集团峰会上与中国领导人会面。事实上,美国的财政部长努钦(Mnuchin)说贸易谈判仍在继续中。

与此同时,《环球时报》的总编辑在推文中表示,中国可能会把出售美国的国债作为正在进行的贸易战中的“武器”来用。后来他澄清说,这只是个人意见,并非是在引用中国政府的消息,这才在一定程度上平息了市场。事实上,今天上午整个曲线上的国债收益率一直走低,回到3月底的几天和2017年12月底之前的水平。

我们一直对中国以这种方式使用货币外汇管理持怀疑态度,因为任何短期的利益都会被长期的成本大大抵消。然而,当看到最近的国际货币基金组织货币《官方外汇储备币种结构季报》的时候还是饶有趣味的,这是2018年12月底的情况。该报告显示,62%的分配储备以美元持有,20.5%以欧元持有,而5%为日元,4.5%为英镑。本报告包括来自149个参与国家(包括中国)的储备金,不包括另一个报告标准下的黄金。

关键是,美联储投票成员罗森格伦(Rosengren)表示,他预计美联储的资产负债表将于9月结束,但也可能会因新的信息的出现而改变。他还指出,美联储有各种工具可以使用,包括采用降息的手段来应对贸易形势,并补充说,他不想过早地判断形势。

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