每日新闻更新 — 美联储对负债的警告 The Daily Update – Fed's debt warning

美联储最新的半年度《金融稳定报告》再次警告说,已经背负大量债务的公司还在以极快的速度借款,而这种情况引发了人们的担忧;换句话说,如果这种趋势延续下去,可能会给金融体系带来风险。这一警告不禁让人们想起了11月份发布的那份警告,不过,现在这份报告指出,突破历史记录的负债最重的公司的贷款中有40%已经转向所有的负债沉重的公司。主持该委员会的美联储理事莱尔·布雷纳德(Lael Brainard)告诫大家说,“自去年年底以来的金融波动正趋缓和,联邦储备委员会的《金融稳定报告》显示,资产估值过高,充满风险的企业债务优点在家庭(消费)和银行业低至中等的背景下继续保持警惕”。

从目前的情况来看,那些拥有大量未偿还债务且在大多数情况下这些公司的信用评级也较低,在2018年将其杠杆贷款增加了20%,达到1.1万亿美元。虽然经济继续表现良好且违约率仍然很低,但如果情况开始变糟,这些风险可能呈指数级增长。进入风险较高的公司的新贷款份额现在要高于2007年和2014年的水平。

该报告警告说,杠杆贷款已经“加剧,因为越来越多的信用评级较低而且已经负债累累的借款人正在得到这些贷款”;该报告还指出,“经济活动的任何下滑都可能会让违约率暴增并导致这些企业产生与就业和投资相关的信贷紧缩”。

前任美联储主席珍妮·特耶伦(Janet Yellen)也公开警告说,如果经济陷入低迷,那些负债累累的公司很快就会陷入困境。2月份,她告诉一个行业组织说,“我已经表达了对杠杆贷款的担忧,我认为非金融公司已经积累了太多的债务”;她还表示,“我担心的是,如果经济遇到低迷,我们可以看到大量的企业将遭遇失败。公司如果陷入困境就会解雇员工并削减投资支出。而且我认为这可能会使得下一轮经济衰退陷入深渊”。

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