每日新闻更新 — 美国联邦公开市场委员会的会议纪要 The Daily Update – FOMC Minutes

昨天晚上公布了4月30日/5月1日召开的美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的会议纪要。虽说这次会议是在美中贸易紧张局势升级之前的几天举行的,但是当会议记录公布的时候,市场仍将其视为关键焦点之一,希望从中获得一点洞察力或者对目前市场预期的支持:在美联储公布该报告之前,“美联储期货”预计在年底之前降息的可能性约为70%。

正如预期的那样,会议纪要强化了美联储在调整利率问题上“耐心的处理方式”“有可能要持续一段时间”的观点。事实上,杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)在会后的评论令人更加关注。他在评论中说,“暂时性因素”是当前低通胀水平的驱动因素。会议记录支持这一评论,该记录写道:“近期通胀疲软从某种程度上可能源于特殊因素,这些因素似乎只会对通胀产生暂时性影响,包括服装价格和投资组合管理服务价格异常急剧的下降。”然而,“几位与会者评论说,如果通胀在未来几个季度没有出现上涨的迹象,那么通胀预期可能会低于和委员会的2%的对称性目标保持一致的水平”。这表明美联储正处于对通胀进行“观望”的模式,对低通胀数据(将会导致迅速降息)的期望在目前这个阶段看来是错误的。

会议纪要还强调,尽管不确定性继续存在,但对于一些与会者而言,相关的风险以及围绕前景的不确定性已经得到缓和。虽然在今天看起来这一点已经过时,因为自从这次会议以来由于美国提高关税和中国予以报复而造成的美中贸易谈判受挫,保护主义带来的风险已经显著增加。此外,美国禁止将美国技术销售给数个与中国技术有关的公司,这一苛刻的举措使得目前的局势进一步升级。在这个黑名单上,首先是华为(暂缓90天执行),接下来海康威视(一家监控公司)和DJI(一家无人机公司)也正在被列入这个名单。  

市场对会议纪要的反应相当平静,标准普尔500指数下跌0.28%,美国股市小幅反弹:美国10年期国债的收益率收盘时为2.38%。在撰写本文时,“美联储期货”估计,美国降息的可能性约为75%,这可能反映出保护主义给增长前景带来的风险已经增大。

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