每日新闻更新 — 世界上万亿美元公司正在发生的事情 The Daily Update – Happenings in the World of Trillion Dollar Companies

到目前为止,世界上真正意义上的万亿美元公司只有三个:首先是在2018年8月出现的苹果,接下来是在下个月跟进的亚马逊,然后是在过去的一周刚刚加入这个万亿美元俱乐部的微软。这段时间可谓是风起云涌,苹果公司自从取得这个具有里程碑意义的成就之后,估值忽而攀升到1.1万亿美元的高位,忽而又降到0.7万亿美元(与亚马逊一样)的低谷。但今年迄今为止约30%的反弹最终推动了微软超越了这个(万亿美元的)指标,并使其他两家科技巨头重新回到了这个十二个零(仅500亿美元)的高度的5%以内 — 所以只有在美好的一天通过受益于四舍五入的错误才能触及这个标记。

但今天对苹果公司来说是一个非常好的一天,盈利预测(主要是iPhone的销售)不错。iPhone销售额达到310亿美元(最近一段时间占公司收入的54%至70%)的消息推动盘前的股票上涨了5.5%。在经历了一轮令人失望的盈利和对iPhone销售轨迹的担忧以及其他同行前些时候普遍存在的收益疲软之后,许多人已经在为一些下行回撤(从股价昨日下跌近2%便可看出) 做准备了,但这次估值的提升还是到来了,尽管季度收入再次同比下降:从611亿美元降至580亿美元。

通过折扣和折价,最新的销售额得到了增加;因此,它们自己也在通过折价从硬件上谋求边际利润,这是为了从潜在的未来数字服务收入中获得更大的受益(它们也可能利用未来的销售来缓解或降低正在变缓的增长所带来的影响)。目前尚不清楚的是,该公司是否能够成功过渡到服务领域里来(让它作为其收入的主要驱动力),就像微软和Adobe等软件公司正在取得的成果那样。即使来自服务的收入有了强劲的增长(同比增长16%),但仍然只占其总收入的五分之一;这差不过相当于iPad和Mac的销量总和。

在财报电话会议上,首席执行官蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook)说,在中国的销售上,他们“确实要比90天前感觉好多了”。但这种语言远远不是乐观的表现,倒是反映出在大中华地区的收入的同比下降,(本季度)下降22%,而上一季度下降了27%。去年苹果公司在研发方面的投入仍超过150亿美元,并计划继续保持这一趋势。该公司的“实际增长”可以从5%的股息增长中得到了解,另外有助于理解该增长的举措是,他们在去年宣布回购1000亿美元,而现在又追加了750亿美元的回购。

近年来,该公司在众多大型贷款中利用债务市场,同时在海外积累现金。但是,在现任美国政府的优惠条件下,去年超过2500亿美元的资金汇款到美国,此后,即使对于像苹果这样的创新型公司来说,现金积累已经过度。因此,虽然这肯定不是美国政府在开始实施外国利得税假期时所希望的,但也许这是目前对现金的最佳使用方法,而不是为收购、不确定的风险投资支付过多的费用,或者只是抱着现金不放。这是(风云变幻)时代的另一个标志,也反映出货币基础的后期增长如何会对资产价格有利,但在进一步刺激经济增长方面已经变得不太奏效了。

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.