每日新闻更新 — 有人担心二十年后欧洲将步日本的后尘 The Daily Update – Japanification concerns

日本央行正考虑延长对2020年春季以后远期汇率的前瞻性指引,一些观察家认为这就是二十年后欧洲的景象。由于全球经济放缓和中国经济低迷,在出口和工业生产(可持续增长的巨大引擎)仍然疲弱之时,人们对第一季度经济增长不足感到担忧。

日本央行官员似乎认同国际货币基金组织对下半年增长前景的看法。他们计划在10月增加消费税,是的,这样的事情需要再次发生,不过这一次从是从目前的8%上调到10%。回想当年1997年,正当经济有点起色的时候,当时的日本首相桥本龙太郎将税率从3%提高到了5%,有些人仍然认为这是1989年12月股市泡沫破灭之后造成所谓的失去的二十年(差不多三十年)的催化剂。

在4月份的会议上,日本央行表示,将保持目前极低的短期和长期利率水平,因为实现2%的通胀目标需要较长时间。如果你看一下大多数的预测,预计从现在起一直到2024年日本的通货膨胀率将低于1.5%,所以说,在我们结束另一个失去的十年经济增长的同时,他们真的可以提供更长时间的前瞻指引。

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