每日新闻更新 — 耐心的美联储和超额存款准备金利率 The Daily Update – Patient Fed & IOER

正如预期的那样,联邦公开市场委员会将联邦基金的目标区间维持在2.25-2.5%,并坚持其“耐心的”态度。鉴于近期个人消费者支出(PCE)数据的疲软,美联储对通胀的看法是关键焦点。联邦公开市场委员会声明承认,通货膨胀背景疲软,并声称,“在12个月的基础上,整体通胀和除食品和能源以外的其他项目的通货膨胀下降且低于2%。”然而,杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)在新闻发布会上的评论对市场鸽派发出了警告。

他指出:“尽管如此,核心通胀也意外下降,截至3月份,前12个月的核心通胀率为1.6%。我们怀疑可能是一些短暂因素在起作用。因此,我们的基本观点仍然不变,那就是,随着就业市场的强劲增长和经济的持续增长,通货膨胀率将随着时间的推移而回升至2%”。此外,他评论说,自年初以来“风险已有所缓和”,“我们认为我们目前的政策立场是恰当的,我们认为没有一个特别强的理由让政策朝其他方向发展”。因此,在撰写本文时,“美联储期货”已经将年底降息的可能性从会前的大约67%降至到目前的大约52%。

在杰罗姆·鲍威尔所描述的“小范围的技术调整”中,美联储将超额存款准备金利率(IOER )降低5个基点至2.35%,以帮助将联邦基金利率维持在目标范围内。美联储将来是否会考虑将其政策利率改为类似于存款利率的工具是另一个争论的领域。我们的宏观经济学家鲍勃·盖伊(Bob Gay)预见到这样的改变并表示:量化宽松政策让银行在美联储拥有巨额的未利用的储备,并不令人感到奇怪的是,这些储备的存款利率在定义政策方面比基金利率更为重要。尽管这种框架变化会引发很多关于美联储未来几个月意图的猜测,但我不认为它会对金融市场造成破坏。我预计,这一变化将在工作人员今年晚些时候对其货币框架进行审查结束时发生。改变通胀的目标,比如说3%,这种可能性不大。把经济“搞热”已成为媒体的宠儿,改变通胀目标是深受人们欢迎的最简单选择。相反,关于“超调”后果的证据更加微妙:把经济搞热实际上可能产生不当的分配效应,包括在不能为弱势工人提供长期工作的情况下的系统性风险的提高。简而言之,“把经济搞热”并非完全按照原来的意图产生效果,可能比原来更糟,甚至比什么都不做还要糟糕。

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