每日新闻更新 — 期限利差处于有记录以来的最低点 The Daily Update – Term Spread at Record Lows

美国10年期国债收益率跌破2.24%,处于20个月以来的最低水平;30年期国债收益率低于2.68%,再有几个基点就要超过2017年的低点,达到30个月以来的低点。更值得注意的是,美联储的期限溢价(与10年期相比)目前是-0.79,处于自1961年数据开始以来的最低点,而在美元掉期曲线中,50年期收益率比3个月期的收益率低约19个基点(2.34%对2.53%)。

当然,国债收益率仍然未降到2016年中期的那个水平,当时的10年期国债收益率降至1.35%,30年期国债收益率也降至2.09%。目前看来,由于市场对全球增长(不足)的担心,由于对低于目标的通胀水平和越打越久的贸易战的担忧,许多市场评论员将近期内(上述收益率)分别定为2%和2.5%。在过去七个交易日中美国股市已经在五个工作日中下跌,在今天早上亚洲和欧洲市场出现一片红海后,美国股市或将在今天晚些时候再次下跌。

稍微令人欣慰的是,在对贸易伙伴进行的宏观和外汇政策的半年度报告中,美国昨日暂缓将中国列为汇率操纵国。但其中的细节却表现出不一致。从整体上看,该报告显示了美国保护主义立场的进一步发展,在将“实质性经常账户盈余”的比例从3%严格到2%的同时,他们增加了对其进行评估的国家的数量:从之前的12个增加到每年双边贸易额超过400亿美元的20个国家。任何违反这一标准或其他门槛的国家(包括“持续性”和“单方面的”货币操纵超过6个月或GDP的2%)现在都面临美国商务部征收新关税的威胁。

从我们的基本情况来判断,我们觉得,安全资产收益率不会下降到2016年中期的那个水平,但目前的环境反映出许多对全球增长和贸易问题的一致担心,而且,我们目前已经领先于商业周期30个月。我们预测,长期国债收益率不会在短期内从现在的水平出现大幅反弹,因为几乎没有任何迹象表明近期将出现三股经济逆风中的任何一股。

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