每日新闻更新 — 难道做交易还有艺术不成? The Daily Update – The art of the deal?

继美国宣布星期五要把对中国进口的2000亿美元的关税增加至25%之后,周四收盘时市场出现了避险的趋势。不出所料,中国警告说,如果美国实施原来计划的增加关税,中国就会采取“必要的反制措施”。周四中国与美国在华盛顿确实又举行了一轮贸易谈判,中国副总理刘鹤率领中国代表团来访。但到目前为止,这似乎无济于事,因为美国在夜间加紧了对中国商品的征税围剿。预计谈判将在今天继续进行,这或许可以解释在撰写本文时市场相对乐观的反应。市场评论显示,上证综合指数在当日收盘时上涨了3.1%,中国国有基金可能是买家。

关税的威胁其实超出了美中两个国家,波及到美国的其他贸易伙伴,如欧洲和日本。特朗普一直威胁要对汽车进口产品征收关税,美国商务部于2月17日发布的“232条”报告为他打开了以国家安全为由对汽车进口征收25%关税的大门:总统有90天的时间对此作出决定,尽管由于国会的反对和正在进行中的贸易谈判,该决定可能会被推迟。尽管欧洲已经威胁说,如果美国实施汽车关税或进一步的关税那么欧盟就要暂停谈判,但欧洲还是同意在4月份授权有关部门开始与美国就工业产品进行谈判。

经济合作与发展组织(OECD)在最近的经济展望中指出,“机动车出口占欧盟对美国出口商品总量的10%左右,欧洲内部存在重要的供应链联系,因此美国的征税将对(欧洲)各国和各公司产生广泛的影响。”本周早些时候,欧盟委员会公布了一套更新的经济预测,其中欧元区经济增长预测今年下调至1.2%,2020年下调至1.5%。欧元和社会对话副主席瓦尔迪斯·多布罗夫斯基斯(Valdis Dombrovskis)指出,虽然“欧洲经济面临着包括贸易紧张局势在内的不利的外部环境,但还是呈现出弹性”,但他也警告称,“前景的风险仍然是明显的。在外部方面,这些因素包括贸易冲突的进一步升级以及新兴市场的疲软,特别是中国的市场。”对我们来说,不断增长的保护主义是对全球经济增长前景的主要威胁。

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