每日新闻更新 — 另一条丝绸之路 The Daily Update – The other silk road

被简称为CNH的离岸货币人民币现在对美元的即期汇率为6.9140,本月因与美国的贸易摩擦而下跌约2.6%。市场对中国政府对货币单位的前景有各种各样的猜测,许多观察人士认为,他们正在试图削弱货币以抵消特朗普政府征收关税所带来的影响。

其实有充分的理由认为,这种货币的走弱并不符合中国的利益。首先是这样做会使进口更加昂贵,尽管出口商会从中受益。过去十年间贸易顺差大幅增加,从GDP的7.6%左右稳步下降到GDP的2.8%,因此人们普遍认为,货币贬值并不会产生太大的影响。事实上,据估计,中国20%的出口产品来自进口商品,因此如果货币进一步疲软的话,制造业将受到严重影响。

此外,人民币的进一步走弱肯定会给中国的其他贸易伙伴带来麻烦,包括日本和欧洲,而这种局面肯定也不符合中国的利益。其实这里还是有一些些教训可以吸取的:2015年8月,中国对货币进行了一次小幅度的调整,而市场则把它看成是要让货币贬值的前兆;在接下来的几个月里,为了让货币稳定,为了能在该货币对CFETS一揽子24种货币领域实施管理,这一调整耗费了储备成本约3500亿美元,初始的目标只是想让人民币弱于美元1%。

然而,我们认为他们不会在中美贸易战中让货币贬值并把货币作为武器,最大的原因在于,中国人民银行多年来一直在开辟另一条丝绸之路 — 人民币的国际化。放松管制以非常快速的速度发展,但对发展的步伐进行了适当的控制,为的就是通过市场驱动而不是政府控制来让所有人都广泛地接受这种货币。现在,在贸易争端中把货币作为武器来用会破坏过去十年打下的良好基础,从短期来看,收益甚微,从长期来看,成本太高,纯属得不偿失之举。

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