每日新闻更新 — 对贸易战的忧虑波及世界 The Daily Update – Trade War Concerns Felt Far and Wide

由于市场对美中贸易协议的乐观情绪遭到打击,标准普尔500指数中93%的股票昨日收低。周一,美国贸易代表罗伯特·莱特希泽(Robert Lighthizer)警告说,最近“中国方面削弱了承诺”,并明确指出,从目前的情况来看,中国进口产品的关税将在本周五从10%上升到25%。特朗普总统在一系列推文中重申了关于关税的新闻报道,不仅警告对即将到来的2000亿美元的进口商品征收25%的关税,而且还将征收的范围扩大到超过5000亿美元的中国商品,另外还要对3250亿美元的进口商品征收关税。

整个市场小幅下跌1.65%,该指数的所有板块收盘走低 — 科技、工业和医疗保健板块领跌。道琼斯工业平均指数也发生重大变化,当天所有股票均下跌,收盘下跌473点或1.8%。到目前为止,5月份的下跌已经显示市场对正面的企业盈利惊喜产生了排山倒海般的宏观层面的担忧。尽管标准普尔500指数中有四分之三的公司超过了分析师的估计(截至目前为止报告的公司已经超过400多家),但该指数在本月迄今仍下跌约了3%。

昨日的一片红海不仅延伸至所有美国股市,而且全球范围内的富时、CAC和DAX均下跌1.6%,而上证综合指数(周一)下跌了5.6%。不难看出,越来越多的证据表明,这场贸易战对中国经济造成了相当大的影响,可能超过了两国之前的预期。中国今天的数据显示,其出口下降2.7%,而进口增长4%,说明在现有关税(以及其他逆风因素)下中国经济受到的压力。这使得4月份的顺差“仅为”138.4亿美元:比市场预期的350亿美元下降了60%,3月份的贸易顺差为326.5亿。然而,由于许多股票仍处于历史高位的几个百分点之内,股市似乎维持在与部分交易假设一致的水平 - 并没有形成一场即将到来的贸易战的灾难。

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