每日新闻更新 — 特朗普被美联储的独立性占了上风 The Daily Update – Trump Trumped by Independence

早在4月初的时候,我们写了一篇评论,说的是特朗普总统试图通过把两名都要求立即降息的候选人力推到空缺的理事会职位上来影响美联储公开市场委员会(FOMC)的独立性。一些参议员表示,他们不会支持对赫尔曼·凯恩(Herman Cain)的任命,他们注意到有人指责他将货币政策政治化以及过去在性行为方面的不端,这导致他早早就失败了。昨天特朗普总统宣布,他不会任命经济评论家斯蒂芬·摩尔(Stephen Moore)为美联储理事会成员。我们敢肯定其他理事会成员为此长长地松了一口气。

据评论员称,这是由于摩尔“有争议的公开言论和一些税收问题”。人们都在说,摩尔希望改变美联储的通胀政策,以美元计算商品价格,因此眼下美联储应该放宽货币政策。然而,当2014至2016年期间石油价格暴跌而且商品的美元价格下跌近50%的时候,他当时呼吁美联储收紧货币政策。所以这是一个非常灵活的过程,似乎更符合特朗普总统发推文的精髓,而不是考虑如何让经济稳健发展。美联储可以再长叹一口气......

现在让我们看一看对非农业薪资的独立分析。

4月份的非农就业数据增加了263K,高于预期的190K,而另外增加了16K对两个月的就业岗位的修正。4月份,制造业跟预计增加1K相比仅增加4K,因此该行业令人稍微有点失望。对于我们债券多头的好消息来自通胀指标,平均每小时收益仅上涨0.2%,而市场上有人对上涨的预期是0.4%,使得同比下降至3.2%,比大多数人的预期稍好一点点。失业率也下降至3.6%,参与率下降了十分之二至62.8%。

从美联储的角度来看,这证明他们目前暂停紧缩政策是正确的,因为通胀似乎正在缓慢下降,并且肯定不会向上攀沿。强劲的就业和有限的工资增长是最近的热门话题,这份报告似乎跟这种思路是一致的。债券价格持平,10年期的美国国债价格几乎没有变化,实际上价格曲线与今天早上伦敦开盘时的价格大致相同。

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