每日新闻更新 — 对比土耳其和微软的债券 The Daily Update – Turkey Republic vs Microsoft

除了一个国家的净外国资产(NFA)的情况之外,我们选择债券的最重要的因素之一就是风险调整后的回报率;我们使用预期的回报率和收益率以及缓冲保护的等级,作为两个主要的识别的因素。虽然我们通常不会在我们的投资组合中投资次级投资级别的债券,但我们仍会留意它们;特别是当我们可以在我们的一个基金中持有垃圾债券的时候。

由于经济基本面不稳定,土耳其因其所有缺点从未成为过我们偏爱的国家;穆迪(Moody)和惠誉(Fitch)分别在2016年和2017年将该国降级为垃圾等级。虽然2007年之前(当时它还保持着三星级的NFA排名)我们本可以将该国纳入可以投资的领域,但是我们从未购买过土耳其(的债券),我们之前只持有过空头头寸(还是在我们的多头/空头策略中)。

看看今天的数据,我们仍然感到意外的是,土耳其的债券仍由许多人持有。我们猜想,追逐收益率的投资者会喜欢这个国家的债券的;例如,这个共和国的4.875%的2043年到期的那一批债券有着超过7%的收益率,“很有吸引力”。然而,如果如果仔细观察这些数字,我们就能算出,债券的交易价格其实“很贵”,预期收益率接近负3%,因此回报和收益率大约只有4%。在等级(缓冲)保护方面,市场实际上是将这个Ba3级债券作为Ba2级的证券来定价的。

如果我们将这个债券跟一个期限相似(大约12.3年)的债券相比,即微软公司4.1%的2037年到期的债券,我们就可以看出为什么微软的债券值得人们持有。首先,这种债券获得了AAA评级,美国还被评级为3星国家。此外,我们的模型计算出美国债券的预期收益率为7.4%,虽然它的收益率并没有土耳其的那么有吸引力, 但估计收益率和回报率大约为11%。微软债券的发行也超过了4个级别的“便宜价格”,因此可以提供足够的下行缓冲保护;我们认为,美国的评级一时半会还不会下调。

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