每日新闻更新 — 空置的财产 The Daily Update – Vacant possessions

日本的人口老龄化问题任何人都不会感到意外。2010年10月达到峰值,当时超过了1.28亿,此后日本的人口一直在以每年20万左右的速度萎缩。然而,这种看似温和的衰退的表面却掩盖了隐藏在下边的一个更大的转变。

日本的出生率目前为每名妇女生1.43个孩子,远远低于估计能够保持人口稳定所需的出生水平的2.07个孩子。尽管自1973年以来日本的生育率一直低于这个水平,但在差不多四十年期间,一直在增加的预期寿命导致总体人口的持续增长。然而,在1990年代中期,日本的工作年龄人口开始下降,而且从那时起已经减少了近1000万人。今天,日本的工作年龄人口略少于6000万人,比1990年中期的峰值下降了约15%。

虽然日本面临的人口挑战已经是众所周知,但人口老龄化的影响却没有得到那么广泛的讨论。今天日本有800万套空房,富士通研究所的预测表明,到2033年,日本的空房数量将达到2000万,占该国整个住房市场的三分之一!最终结果是,日本的房屋实际上可以免费赠送。当从这些方面考虑时,我们就很容易理解为什么日本的需求如此疲软,自从工作年龄人口开始下降以来,该国就未能产生出任何有意义的增长或为此而导致的通货膨胀。

其实,这并不是只有日本才有的问题。让我们看一看意大利,2013年后意大利的工作年龄人口开始下降。与日本一样,意大利在让经济增长(并且最近重新陷入衰退)的道路上一直在挣扎,在过去十年中平均增长率为负0.3%。国际货币基金组织预计,意大利在未来五年中每年的增长率将低于1%,看来这个国家的未来看上去也光明不到哪里去。

不过这里有一个亮点是意大利的财产,但又跟您想象的不一样。据信,在整个意大利有超过200万处房产在空置,去年撒丁岛上的奥勒莱(Ollolai)小镇宣布了一项计划,以每套1欧元的价格出售200套房屋,以便吸引人口并恢复这个农村城镇的活力。看来变老有时也可能会有点好处。

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