每日新闻更新 — 表现不一且创下记录新低的收益率 The Daily Update – Diverging and Record Low Yields

2年期美国国债收益率今天跌至2%以下,使2至6年期债券曲线低于联邦基金目标利率(上限)至少50个基点。与此同时,德国10年期国债收益率创下历史新低:-0.206%,甚至比它在2016年中期美国10年期收益率为1.35%时候的负收益率还要低。相比之下,目前美国10年期国债收益率自从5月份从2.5%稳步下跌后正徘徊在2.15%以上,不过仍然比2016年中期低点还要高出80个基点。全球正在寻求转向安全之际,又恰遇美国威胁要对墨西哥的“所有商品”征收关税使得全球贸易进一步遭受打击,之前墨西哥有一批超过一千人的移民非法进入了美国。

除了意大利的收益率高于其5年平均水平(2.72%对2.07%)之外,欧洲三个“猪国”(PIGS)的平均收益率大幅下降:葡萄牙(0.79%对2.58%)、希腊(2.95%对6.65%)和西班牙(0.72%对1.58%)这三个国家的收益率都不到5年平均值的一半。这些收益率的变动与欧洲选举结果不无关系,在这次选举中,只有意大利显示出对民粹主义政党的强烈支持。尽管一些负债累累的欧元区成员国已经创造了经济奇迹,甚至超过了国际货币基金组织设定的强硬目标,但它们都仍然持有大量的净外债,如果它们的收益率在更加严峻的避险环境中飙升而使得它们无法应对数目仍然十分庞大的短期债务的时候很快就会变得无法偿还。

我们在2019年注意到的反映情绪和收益率变化的另一个有趣的例子是特斯拉。由于其股价在今年几乎减半,其现有的5.3%的2025年期债券目前提供的收益率接近9.5%。我们倾向于避免负收益率,避免那些既没有有吸引力的收益率也无法兑现收益率的净外债持有者,同样也避免那些从5个月内就几乎可以翻倍的投机性赌博中猎取更高的收益率。我们的观点反而是,像A3评级的TAQA 2036年期这样的债券今年迄今为止的收益率从4.8%下降到4.25%,上涨了7美元。然而,它仍然提供比其他安全信用(债券)更大的收入,根据我们的计算,它便宜的价格超过了2个等级,因此它的收益率与典型的Baa2债券是一样多的,或者反过来,如果它转向公允价值,有可能产生9%的回报和收益。

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