每日新闻更新 — 德拉吉要采取行动以刺激经济 The Daily Update - Draghi Stimulus

我们在等待欧洲央行成员关于潜在的刺激经济的行动的进一步消息,此时官员们可能会注意到德国欧洲经济研究机构(ZEW)指标的发布,这是衡量德国投资者信心的指标,该指数昨天迎来了三年来的最大跌幅。ZEW的总裁Achim Wambach(阿奇穆·瓦姆巴赫)表示,“全球经济未来发展的不确定性在增加”。“美国和中国之间的冲突在加剧,中东地区发生军事冲突的风险在增加,而且无协议脱欧的可能性也在增加,这些因素都会影响到全球经济的前景。”

事实上,欧洲央行行长德拉吉(Draghi)昨天在葡萄牙发表讲话时称,如果经济前景没有改善,将需要“额外的刺激措施”,并暗示不排除进一步降息和重新购买资产。

由于所有这些不利因素以及潜在的更低的利率,现在若希望德国政府债务的收益率为正值(实际上,即便当价格为170.17,4%的2037期的德国国债的收益率才是零),那么债券的期限最少要到2037年才行。综合指数水平显示,德国政府债务目前收益率为负11个基点!

有趣的是,摩根大通计算出,零之下的政府债务现在占发达市场的25%,占欧元区的46%,或者的负收益率股票的构成已经从2018年10月的22.5%的低点翻了一番。目前,总计约11万亿美元的全球债务的收益率均为负值,这是自2016年10月以来的最低水平。

所以,经常阅读我们评论的读者当了解到我们在“富裕”国家投资的时候就不会为之感到奇怪了,这些国家的债券具有额外的缓冲,我们不做“太贵的”交易。德国作为顶级信贷的国家对于我们来说完全没有问题,但以美元计算的我们的投资组合的收益率约为4%。当然,若调整外汇对冲后欧元等值收益率将会有所下降(2.5%略多一点),但我们认为,尽管如此这仍然非常具有吸引力,尤其是在10年期葡萄牙(债券)的收益率目前为0.6%,希腊的仅为2.5%,西班牙的仅为0.4%,麻烦缠身的意大利的收益率为2.1%的时候。

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