每日新闻更新 — 德拉吉以鸽派的言辞安抚市场 — 缓和局势并投市场所好 The Daily Update - Easing, Pleasing – Draghi Placates Markets with Dovish Speech

欧洲央行行长马里奥·德拉吉(Mario Draghi)今天在一年一度的欧洲中央银行论坛上发表了一份综合性演讲,他同意“在(经济前景)没有改善、通胀持续回归无望达到我们的目标的情况下,我们将需要采取额外的刺激措施。”在整个演讲期间(尤其是随着这次会议的继续通过欧洲央行的评论员的言论),市场听到了一个明确的鸽派信号,欧洲央行有可能会实施更多的货币刺激政策,除非经济前景改善。演讲结束后,欧元下挫0.3%,欧洲斯托克50指数上涨1.3%,德国国债的收益率创下历史低点-0.3%,通胀预期上升(尽管幅度并不大),为2019年以来所罕见。

除了在接近2018年底当欧盟消费者物价调和指数(HICP)数据略高于目标时有接近4个月的昙花一现的好景之外,六年半以来,欧洲央行一直未能达到其2%的通胀目标(低于但接近)。根据欧元区5年/5年通胀掉期为衡量标准的话,自去年年底以来,通货膨胀措施和预测已经暴跌,后者达到了1.10的历史最低点。无独有偶,美国那边的情况非常相似,其5年/5年的利率从5月份的2.3%暴跌至本周的1.92。在市场担心欧洲中央银行失去对通胀预期的控制的背景下,今天的讲话看上去显得很有必要。然而,德拉吉重申,资产购买计划仍然具有“相当大的空间”,欧洲央行“将利用被授权的所有灵活性来完成自己的任务,如果将来出现任何形式对价格稳定的挑战,我们会采取同样的办法”。

就在昨天,欧洲央行执行委员会成员本诺瓦•科内(Benoît Cœuré)在接受英国《金融时报》采访时强调,“在设计(金融)工具时我们应该有广泛的自由裁量权,欧洲法院(ECJ)对这一原则也给以了确认。设定限制是我们说了算。在整个债券市场,我们已经拥有了一定程度的自由。”科内的评论以及(不惜一切代价的)马里奥先生和其他人员的言论发出的信号表明,欧洲央行不仅准备降息而且还要加大资产购买的力度 — 可能是增加配额限制,甚至可能是放弃资本密钥以便允许资本不按比例流入面临更大压力的地区。

同样,市场压力已经导致货币政策制定者退缩,而此时财政刺激措施似乎将成为更有效的对策。多年来德拉吉一直在警告这一点,但收效甚微,而且随着他在10月任期结束时间的临近,市场因为受到在整个欧洲采用的闲置和无能的财政政策干预以及使用货币刺激的长期影响而发生动荡的可能性大增。

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