每日新闻更新 — 欧元区内双重的理想幻灭 The Daily Update – Eurozone Double Disillusionment

欧元区市场听到了来自意大利和希腊的双重警钟。就在希腊10年期国债收益率达到历史最低点2.85%的几天后,欧盟委员会警告称,这两个国家可能无法达到救助后的预算目标。这一警告反映出希腊政府失职的结果。在超越2018年的主要盈余目标(目标为2.5%,实际达到3.5%)并承诺到2022年达到目标后,齐普拉斯(Tsipras)开始实施一系列扩张性财政措施,包括更多即将出台的财政措施。现任欧盟委员会副主席瓦尔迪斯·多布罗夫斯基(Valdis Dombrovskis)也赞同今天关于对希腊增强监督的报告,称5月15日(该国)新的财政措施是“破坏性的”,“太烧钱,是不对的”。

同时意大利也遭到多布罗夫斯基的抨击,他说,“意大利的经济几乎停滞不前”,最近“对意大利经济具有破坏力的”政策选择“没有遵守(欧盟)对意大利担保的过度债务程序的债务标准”。欧洲委员会宣布实施纪律程序现在成为“必要”,欧盟已经开始制定纪律程序,可能包括高达35亿欧元的首次罚款。希腊的收益率已经从低点回落,但仍然低于3%,意大利10年期国债的收益率有了一个稍微明显的10个基点的移动,从2.51%上升至2.61%。根据我们的“相对价值模型”,希腊的316个基点的差价(在10年期债券接近-0.23%的新低的情况下)仍然很昂贵;根据我们的分析,特别是我们对净外国资产的评估,希腊的债务依然存在无法偿还的风险,有关政策或市场情绪哪怕有一点风吹草动就会推翻脆弱的债务结构,因为这些债务结构是建立在救助以及人们对资本市场继续开放、遵守规范以及保持在现有水平的期望之上的。

在有关欧元区机构的其他新闻中,飞利浦·莱恩(Philip Lane)本周开始担任欧洲央行的首席经济学家。这位前爱尔兰中央银行的行长还和另外一位作者合作帮助国际货币基金组织(IMF)发表了大量关于净外国资产分析的论文。我们的预计是,各国的净外国资产情况将继续对市场、评级机构和超国家机构如何评估与去杠杆化周期和冲击相关的主权信用价值(以及货币波动风险)产生影响作用。

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