每日新闻更新 — 外国直接投资与中国 The Daily Update – FDI flows & China

根据联合国贸易和发展会议2019年世界投资报告,2018年全球外国直接投资流量(FDI)下降13%至1.3万亿美元,这是连续第三年在下降。 

该报告认为这一下降“主要是由于在2017年末采用税收改革后美国跨国企业在2018年前两个季度累积的外国收入被大量汇回国内以及下半年来自上升趋势的补偿不足。”然而,该报告也指出,“即使不考虑税改和跨境并购增加的波动,外国直接投资的基本趋势(可减弱一次性交易和公司内部资金流动变化所引起的波动)仍然是负面的。 直到十年前,基本趋势的平均年增长率还在10%以上,不过之后便在不足1%的水平停滞不前。”

贸发会议乐观预计,2019年全球投资将恢复10%至1.5万亿美元,尽管仍然低于过去10年的平均水平。该报告指出了来自地缘政治的风险、贸易紧张局势和保护主义对经济复苏构成的压力。其他长期趋势包括政策因素,如对外国所有权的限制、对国家安全的考虑和结构变化(如在国际生产层面数字技术的采用正在推动(普通资产)向无形资产和轻资产形式转变)。

尽管中美之间的贸易紧张局势,中国的整体外国直接投资流量仍然保持良好态势:2018年外国直接投资流入量同比增长4%至1390亿美元,约占全球流量的10%。值得注意的是,自2018年7月以来,(中国)对汽车、电力、船舶和飞机器制造行业的外国所有权限制政策的放宽有助于推动外国直接投资流入制造行业。此外,2019年中国通过了新的《外国投资法》,放宽了部分服务业的投资限额,中国商务部的数据显示,今年前5个月外商直接投资同比增长6.8%,达到3690亿人民币(约合536亿美元)。

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