每日新闻更新 — 美联储准备采取行动 The Daily Update - Fed ready to act

对于前景更加不确定的局面,美联储明显转向更为温和的立场,尽管如此,昨天晚上美联储还是维持联邦基准利率不变。在新闻发布会的陈述中,杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)强调了对原来的保持耐心的立场的改变:“鉴于不确定性因素的增加和通胀压力的减弱,我们现在强调,委员会将密切关注收到的信息对经济前景的影响,并根据具体情况采取适当的行动来维持扩张”。重要的是,鲍威尔指出,“虽然基线前景依然良好,但问题在于这些不确定性是否会继续影响前景以至于最终需要对货币政策进行额外的调整。许多联邦公开市场委员会的与会人员现在看到,需要更加宽松政策的意见得到了加强。”

最新的经济预测显示,就GDP增长预测中值而言,2019年保持变,为2.1%,2020年(从1.9%)小幅调至2%。然而,就核心个人消费支出(PCE)通胀的预测中值而言,2019年从2%下调至1.8%,2020年从2%下调至1.9%。修订后的利率预测现在显示,在17名美联储的官员中有8名官员正在寻求降息,其中7名预计到年底联邦基金利率将下调0.5%,1名官员预计会下调0.25%。尽管如此,就联邦基金的预测中值而言,2019年仍然保持在2.4%,但2020年降至2.1%(低于3月份的预测2.6%)。

在听到美联储已经做好了在必要时降息的准备的消息之后,基于4月底以来的强劲表现,美国国债应声上涨,其10年期的收益率突破了2%,在撰写本文时交易价格约为1.99%。从目前的情况来看,需要以下因素的结合才能阻止美联储在7月份召开的下次美联储会议上降息的行动:更强的数据点、更好的美国通胀数据和贸易谈判的积极发展,尤其是美中之间的贸易谈判。

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