每日新闻更新 — 被误导的熊市 The Daily Update – Misinformed bears

昨天美国财政部对七年期债券的拍卖出现糟糕的结果令债券熊市跳涨,这是市场对当前这一波涨势定价过度的一个明确迹象。尽管如此,我们还要从正确的背景中解读这次拍卖。我们刚刚有一个因为假期而使得工作日减少的星期,而且星期二美国财政部提供了810亿美元的两年期和五年期债券,两次拍卖都取得了非常好的结果,特别是两年期的。那么这里发生的事情究竟是怎么一回事?

我们认为,随着比过去稍微疲软的工业生产以及指向正在变缓的经济增长的调查结果,市场开始把明年美国发生经济衰退的可能性考虑了进去。尽管失业率目前处于50年来的低位,但是眼下能进行最低程度的抵抗就是接受较低的债券收益率。

我们都知道,市场经常会向两个方向中的任何一方向延伸,去年市场在10前期的收益率跳涨至3.25%,2016年市场跌至1.36%,但这两种情况很快就结束了。如果我们把2017年作为一个整体来看的话,其实十年期的收益率超出2.5%至2.05%的区间的时间也只有两周。今天早上我们刚好又回到了这个区间的中点,2.26%因此人们有理由辩驳说,鉴于目前所有经济证据和持续的贸易摩擦,市场回归到该水平是合理的定价。

我们认为曲线的短端正是可以反映市场定价时最大程度乐观的地方,因为市场定价好像考虑进去了今年的两次降息,不过鉴于迄今为止看到的证据,我们觉得这种做法有点太激进。曲线的较长端价格更为合理一些,因为美联储保持目前暂停货币活动的立场以及除了监控之外无所事事的做法持续的时间越长,通胀前景进一步下跌的可能性就越大,这将再次为长期债券提供更低利率的机会。

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