每日新闻更新 — 五月先卖,回头再来 The Daily Update – Sell in May and Go Away

当我们进入6月份的第一周并关注美国国债市场的时候,不禁想起股市里的一句谚语:“五月先卖,回头再来”。今天上午十年期国债交易的收益率为2.08%,比六周前低了52个基点。那么这意味着经济环境发生了巨大变化还是市场错误地将收益率推至去年的高位?

从我们的观点来看,市场确实达到了超卖水平,这使得我们在今年早些时候延长了我们投资组合的持续时间,但与此同时,环境已经恶化,前景明显要求美联储采取必要措施以提供进一步的支持。这种支持可能是降息的形式,或者通过资产负债表的管理重新增加一直在耗尽的流动性。长期以来,我们一直认为美联储在加息和资产负债表缩水之间过度收紧,而且经济发展的不稳定状况也不足以抵御可能出现的任何冲击,例如来自唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)的威胁。                                      

昨晚美联储成员布拉德(Bullard),一位显然属于降息阵营的投票成员表示,“看来美联储近期降低基金利率以提振通胀或为明智之举”,接着又说,“如果我们现在采取放松政策就可以帮助重新确定通胀预期”,接着又说,“这样做还可以提供一些保险”来应对全球风险。我们认为他所指的全球风险就是正在发生的贸易摩擦,因为他补充说,“围绕关税问题的不确定性可能会减缓美国经济的发展”。

然而市场的步伐已经远远超越了布拉德先生,因为从目前市场的定价来看,7月31日降息的可能性为61.4%,9月18日之前降息的可能性为92%,这两个时间点是美联储在6月19日召开会议之后的两次会议的日期,根据市场定价的情况来看,6月份这次会议的降息几率只有22.9%。

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.