每日新闻更新 — 该戴上锡头盔了The Daily Update - Tin helmet time

美国国债市场继续表现良好,昨日整个曲线的收益率进一步下跌4个基点,基准10年期国债收益率变为2%。贸易摩擦导致各界产生了对经济放缓的预期,随着这个主流观点的凸显,曲线的较短端的定价继续期待今年将有三次降息。正如预料的那样,特朗普总统继续向联邦公开市场委员(FOMC)会施加压力,就因为它没有在上次会议上降息便把它称为一个“固执己见的孩子”。

随后,美联储成员罗伯特·卡普兰(Robert Kaplan)(无投票权成员)警告说,“在这个紧要关头增加货币刺激措施将会导致经济发展过度和失衡状况的加剧,而这种局面最终可能被证明是痛苦的,恐怕难以收场。”有趣的是他对紧张的就业市场的看法,他说,“我们认为,在2019年剩余的时间里,每月6万到12万的就业机会的增长将与强劲的就业市场相吻合”。不要忘记,5月份非农就业人数仅为7.5万,而市场的预期是接近20万。

谈到通货膨胀,在截至4月份的这一年中保持在1.5%,远低于美联储2%的目标水平。他听起来并不像他的一些同事那么忧心忡忡,而且实际上怀疑紧张的劳动力市场会因为公司无法提高价格而产生有问题的定价压力;他接着说,跟价格上涨一样,“这同样能够导致商业利润率的下降”。

在经历了长期扩张、地缘政治的逆风、不断增长的(各种)侧风的问题之后,经济肯定会出现下行的风险;在读懂了卡普兰的想法之后,如果美联储在7月份不降息,那就难以理解了;而且此时特朗普还没有把眼光盯在他的下一个目标国家上(不管这个国家是谁)。如果我是住得离美国那么近的加拿大人,我会一把抓住锡头盔,赶紧戴在头上再说。

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