每日新闻更新 — 美国的降息 The Daily Update – US Interest Rate cuts

由于阿曼湾有两艘油轮遭到袭击,地缘政治紧张局势愈演愈烈,美国国债市场昨日全线上扬。

现在市场的短端价格指向今年的基金利率将有三次25个基点的下调,然后就再也没有更多的降息了,我们认为这有点奇怪。鉴于中东的局势、贸易紧张局势和一些经济疲软的进一步证据,特别是最近的非农就业数据,一些人认为,最早在下周的联邦公开市场委员会会议上就应该有一次“保险降息”。我们觉得下周不太可能降息;从目前的市场定价来看,美联储不太可能会降息三次然后便停止。

期待美联储降息三次然后停止的问题在是,自沃尔克(Volcker)时代以来,只有一次出现过美联储在没有某种金融事件的背景下以这种方式使用政策工具的情况。他们三次降息然后便停止的情况发生在三个不同的场合:一次是由于1987年黑色星期一的股市崩盘,还有一次是1998年应对长期资本对冲基金的爆发性增长。1995年底,格林斯潘担任主席时的美联储三次降息并停下来,这次行动确实成功地实现了经济的软着陆,而然后在1997年初又一次采取了紧缩政策。

因此,那是美联储唯一一次根据市场定价而采取的行动。除非我们已经处于经济衰退的边缘,否则目前市场的定价着实有点令人感到担心。

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