每日新闻更新 — 加息不太可能会发生 A Spike So Unlikely It Could Happen

彭博社的最新调查显示,由于零售业报告的销售额进一步下滑,英国第二季度经济萎缩0.1%。来自英国零售商协会的报告显示,6月份销售额较去年同期下降了1.6%,另外,6月份的采购经理人指数显示,制造业和建筑业均出现萎缩。由于很多公司赶在原来拟定的3月29日英国脱欧日期之前大规模囤积库存,第一季度的库存量大增,在制造业内,生产和新业务显示出近7年来最差的数据。 

就在上周,英国中央银行行长马克·卡尼(Mark Carney)还警告称,全球范围内的贸易紧张局势和无协议脱欧的威胁增加了经济前景的下行风险。事实上,市场的定价几乎完全是根据明年年中英国央行将有一次降息而做出的,目前基本上没有经济学家认为到2021年第二季度之前会有加息的情况发生。卡尼还警告说,英国央行的回应将取决于对供应、需求和汇率的影响。

目前英镑兑美元汇率处于今年的低位,跌幅已经超过2%,从7月初到现在,英镑是表现最差的货币之一,到目前为止跌幅为1.3%。跟欧元相比,英镑在第一季度的所有增长已经丧尽,仅自5月初以来已下跌约5%。

那么,什么才可以阻止英镑进一步下跌?有很多因素我们应该考虑,例如市场已经放弃考虑的英国脱欧协议,以及像英国央行行长所说的那样,英国央行将对汇率做出回应。这里的主要因素是,商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)的数据显示,杠杆基金已将英镑的空头头寸提升至去年9月以来的最高水平。 

虽然很难看到英镑会有持续的反弹,而且大多数人认为英镑的未来前景仍然是疲软的,但在货币市场,当大家都持有某个观点的时候,相反的情况也是非常有可能的;如果出现并不像市场目前定价的依据那么糟糕的情况,将会发生由于空头覆盖引发的加息,建议投资时警惕这种情况的发生。

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