每日新闻更新 — 看到PMI有感 The Daily Update – PMI me up

尽管所有人都在关注美中贸易谈判,但美国贸易代表办公室昨日公布了另外一份价值40亿美元对欧洲商品征税的目录,早在4月份就已经公布了一个210亿美元的清单。这是源于旷日持久的空中客车和波音公司之间的纠纷;然而,欧洲的樱桃、肉类、奶酪、橄榄、意大利面和某些威士忌的生产商可能无法理解他们为什么被卷入两个飞机公司之间因为补贴而引起的争端之中。

尽管20国集团峰会上出现了昙花一现的贸易休战,但是像这样的消息在不断地增加全球范围内变得越来越明显的下行风险。为了证实这一点,昨天大量的采购经理人指数(PMI)报告清楚地告诉人们目前所有的这些贸易摩擦会如何影响到经济发展的前景。在昨天发布的35个PMI中,在5月至6月期间只有7个为正数;这相当于有18个国家现在得分低于50,这个水平被普遍地认为是繁荣或萧条的界限。诚然,如果你看看G7+俄罗斯,在这8个国家中,只有两个国家处于正值区域,而剩下的(进入负值的)两个国家中,美国就是其中一个。

PMI数据是一项发送给高级管理人员,向他们咨询制造业和服务业领域的经济发展趋势的主导方向的调查。这些调查咨询的问题是,他们正在经历的市场状况是在扩大、在保持不变还是在收缩。尽管该结果可以随着(市场)情绪的波动而有所变化,但就今天的情况来看,这是反映当前发展前景的一个非常好的指标。

这可能有助于解释全球范围的收益率为什么都这么低,因为经济持续增长的前景并不乐观,特别是当美国和中国突然感冒的时候。

今天早上,意大利主权债券市场可以称作是明星,因为民粹主义政府降低了预算赤字,所以你现在可以把钱借给意大利,十年期的收益率是... ... 等一等... ...十年期的收益率是1.87%;如果你想购买他们的2年期债券,你则必须用负收益率(和意大利政府一道)支付他们的一部分预算。意大利制造业的PMI昨日为48.4,比5月份的49.7有所下降。

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