每日新闻更新 — 整个欧洲的收益率在下降并不全是好事 The Daily Update - Falling Yields Across Europe Ain’t All Good

如果您想让奥地利为您的孙子女照管您的遗产资金,您可以使用奥地利100年期的债券(现在剩下98年),收益仅为1.18%(请记住,复合的魔力仍然足以让您的资金到2117年的时候上涨三倍)。但这个债券的2.1%的息票和大约为150-160欧元的交易价格清楚地提醒我们,欧洲债券市场在过去两年中已经走了多远,根据这种债券的情况,如果您从2017年就锁定您的资金,那么届时将有多达7.6倍(根据通常的假设)的资金在等待着受益人(他们可以用这笔钱作为首付来购买一辆会飞行的汽车或者去火星旅行的门票)。

当然,这给那些投资包括养老基金在内的长期投资者出了个难题,他们可以通过收获短暂收益进而在收益率下降的环境中生存下来,但然后就要面临越来越少的能够满足其负债或目标回报的投资机会。同样的根本问题正在越来越严重地导致金融业的收入下降,一些人不以为然,认为德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的困境主要是一个简单的盈利问题,2%左右的股本回报率根本不足以维持这个庞然大物的存在。即使将2880亿欧元的长期杠杆资产转移到一个坏账银行也不会失效或违约,但在当前的监管环境中大多只是提供的回报太少,据此不会形成迫在眉睫的流动性或偿付能力的问题,而仅仅是一个盈利能力的问题,这显示出,若没有结构性变化(或者是一个显然更加难以接受的合并),这个问题并没有缓解的迹象。

另一个显而易见的表现是意大利的50年期债券,目前的收益率仅为2.84%,于2067年到期。意大利最近的政治动荡足以引起人们对近况的关注,更不用说半个世纪以后超长期的远景了;尽管如此,这种特别债券的价格还是从6月初的85欧元上涨到上周的104欧元。本周意大利顺势增加发行了一批30亿欧元的超长期债券,收到了近170亿欧元的订单,因此超额认购多达5.6倍。法国兴业银行(Societe Generale)信贷和货币策略主管基特·杰克斯(Kit Juckes)在谈到当前的情景时说,“有正值收益的‘安全'债券的短缺仍在诱导投资者为剩下的蝇头小利付出过高的代价。”现在进退维谷的局面是,对欧洲主权债券有利的事对它的金融界却是一件坏事。因此,无论市场走势如何,我们继续看到的是整个欧洲微乎其微和仍在下降的价值,而且还伴随着不断增加的风险。

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