每日新闻更新 — 美联储总体看好/其他国家就不这样 The Daily Update – Fed Generally Positive / Others Not So

根据昨日公布的《美联储褐皮书》,美国经济继续以适度的速度扩张,从5月中旬一直到6月初的前景“总体看好”,与上一报告期相比几乎没有变化。美联储表示,在其12个地区中的“很多地区”,零售销售和房屋销售略有增长,而汽车销售则持平。劳动力市场继续扩大并依旧“紧张,全国各地的联系人员难以填补空缺的职位”。该报告指出,“未来几个月的前景总体看好,尽管人们普遍担心与贸易相关的不确定性可能带来负面影响,但市场的预期经济会继续温和增长”。

目前遇到比美国更多逆风的一个经济体是日本,贸易战、全球增长放缓,甚至与韩国在出口问题上的争吵也会给该国造成损失。日本出口连续七个月下降,制造商的商业信心已经触及三年来的低点。6月份这个全球第三大经济体的出口同比下降6.7%,不考虑一个月前7.8%的下降,还远高于市场所预期的5.6%的下降。最引人注目的数据是对中国(日本最大的贸易伙伴)的出口:同比下降10.1%,连续四个月下降。占日本总出口量的50%以上的通向所有亚洲的出货量下降了8.2%。除了这些糟糕的数据之外,路透社短观调查显示,日本制造商的商业信心在7月份达到三年来的低点,这凸显了其经济上的脆弱性。

另一个经济前景更加暗淡的国家是韩国。韩国银行意外地将基准利率从1.75%下调至1.5%。韩国央行行长李柱烈(Lee Ju-yeol)指出,随着央行降低了通胀和增长预测,韩国跟日本之间的保护主义和摩擦正在与日俱增。韩国央行目前期望通胀率上升0.7%(低于先前的1.1%),经济增长率为2.2%(低于第二季度的2.5%)。在新闻发布会上,这位行长警告说,“支持经济复苏的必要性变得越来越大”,他接着说道,“如果日本对韩国的出口限制成为现实甚至扩大,那么对我们的经济的影响,包括出口,将不会太小” 。

 

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