每日新闻更新 — 美联储准备降息 The Daily Update – Fed ready to cut rates

杰罗姆·鲍威尔在众议院金融服务委员会面前就半年度货币政策宣读了证词,这份证词延续了他在6月份召开的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议后的新闻发布会上的那种温和的基调,他说,“(目前的)乱流,如贸易紧张局势和人们对全球经济增长的担忧,一直在影响着经济活动和前景”。这种情况尤其使得“本来已明显放缓”的商业投资望而却步。

重要的是,鲍威尔的评论进一步显示,自FOMC(上次会议)以及6月份非农就业数据强于预期以来,其观点并没有任何变化:“从那以后,根据公布的数据和其他发展情况,看来贸易紧张局势的不确定性以及人们对全球经济力量的担忧继续为美国经济前景形成压力。通胀依然乏力。”这些评论与FOMC会议纪要(当天晚些时候也公布)结合在一起就不难凸显(市场)对降息作出的判断:会议记录显示:“如果这些近期的发展状况表现出持续性态势并继续拖累经济前景的话,那么有不少(委员)认为,近期内则需确保进行追加的货币政策调整”。

尽管2年期和10年期曲线变陡,自上周五的NFPR数据发布后,美国的国债市场有所回升,作为对鲍威尔的评论的回应,美国的国债市场10年期的收益率收盘价为2.05%,当日早些时候的交易价格为2.11%。目前市场正在期待7月份FOMC至少将有25个基点的降息。我们也预计将有25个基点的降息,而且注意到了这一点,即使温和的圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长詹姆斯·布拉德(James Bullard)在6月份的会议上曾反对降息,但昨天的发言也跟上述立场保持了一致:“我赞成在下一次会议上削减25个基点”,还说“我不想对会议的结果作过多的推断,但如果会议是在今天或明天召开的话,那么这就是我的建议。”

美国的10年期国债收益率现在略高于2%,但我们觉得,由于美国的经济前景疲软,其交易价格会在低于这个水平的范围内进行。与欧洲和日本市场相比,美元债券的收益率保持在相对较高的水平,这表明它的降息和收益率压缩的空间也相对较大:在撰写本评论时,10年期德国国债的收益率为-0.28%。通胀背景依然良好,6月份FOMC的预测显示,核心个人消费支出(PCE)指数对通胀的中值预测从2019年的2%下调至1.8%,从2020年的2%下调至2020年的1.9%。此外,杰罗姆·鲍威尔昨天在准备好的发言中警告说,“通胀疲软比我们目前预期的时间还要长久的风险还是存在的 。”

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.