每日新闻更新 — 无论亨特和鲍里斯谁来做首相恐怕都没有回天之力 The Daily Update – Hunted or Johnsoned - The Lesser Of Two Weevils

现在我们已经知道,克里斯蒂娜·拉加德(Christine Lagarde)温顺并半推半就地接受了欧洲央行行长这一职务,接下来在仕途晋升政治日历上当是鲍里斯·约翰逊(英文全名:Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson)或者是杰里米·亨特(英文全名:Jeremy Richard Streynsham Hunt)。再有在20天的时间,他们其中一人将赢得国家巨轮舵手的称号,然而这艘巨轮却是一个群龙无首,意见不一的国家,连分裂的风险都在增加:这艘巨轮航行在欧盟谈判代表以及国内外顽固派的一堆石头上。

现在看来,(跟我们的足球运动员罚点球相比,)这两位有望成为首相的政治家恐怕都没有更好的能力把这场(志在必得的)谈判完成得更好一些,恐怕也难达成一个比原来的那个脱欧协议更好的协议;他们一个人发誓要在10月31日之前“无论结果怎样”都要完成脱欧的使命,另外一个人将无协议脱欧的最后期限设定在9月底。由于货币市场和其他信号表明现在比以往任何时候都更有可能走向无协议脱欧,就在英国面临硬脱欧的情况下,今天疲软的采购经理人指数(PMI)数据进一步加剧了市场对英国可能进入经济衰退的担忧。最新的综合PMI数据并未达到预期值51.0(实际数值为49.7),私营部门2016年以来的首次萎缩表明上季度国内生产总值可能萎缩了0.1%,从风险和势头来看,今年第三季度的经济将进一步疲软。

IHS Markit的首席商业经济学家克里斯·威廉逊(Chris Williamson)指出,“6月份服务业近乎停滞不前,这是过去十年中表现最差的一次,并且伴有制造业和建筑业的大幅下滑。从整体上来看,PMI调查显示,自2016年7月以来经济首次陷入萎缩,遭遇自2009年4月全球金融危机以来第二大产出跌幅......下行风险的局势依然严峻......”

接下来的两周大家会看到两位候选人就英国脱欧的意图发表轰动性言论,但极有可能双方都无法与欧盟达成新的协议,而且也很难让无协议脱欧的议案在议会得到通过:许多人觉得,全国大选将足以成为让欧盟再次延长脱欧截止期限的理由。所以当前大家关注的焦点在于谁更有可能让保守党得到优势,以遏制科尔宾上台。但是谁也不能肯定(欧盟会再次)同意延期,而且有些人认为,接下来的首相有一个秘密的议程,将提出一个“仅限于北爱尔兰的后备支持”议案让大家投票表决,从而有效地把这个要么选择硬边界要么就选择硬脱欧的两难选择推给英国最小的组成国家(北爱尔兰)。 由于存在如此大的不确定性,如果第二季度国内生产总值略微出现下降,无论未来几天和几个月中哪个人或哪个意识形态获得胜利,那么英国将很有可能在9月底陷入经济衰退。

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