每日新闻更新 — 到底是鹰派降息还是鸽派降息?还是中立之举? The Daily Update – Neutral, Hawkish, Dovish??

继昨天的欧洲央行会议之后,正如预期的那样,降息被推到前台,成为9月份会议的议题,现在的焦点将集中在下周的美联储会议上。

我们预计7月31日美联储将降息25个基点,语言将稍微转向鹰派,因为这将是全球金融危机以来的首次降息。如果发展前景没有得到改善或者因为显而易见的贸易摩擦等因素导致的下行风险仍然存在,那么这次降息将被视为“基本中立”的降息,将为进一步的降息打开大门。这会导致市场的小幅度波动,曲线会出现上扬,并伴随有趋平的走势和对风险资产的一定程度的失望。

如果他们削减了25个基点并发表诸如以下的评论,那么这次降息将被视为一种相当“鹰派”的表现:“这样做是在收回12月份的降息,现在将转向依据数据的做法”。我们预计曲线将出现熊平,并伴随有一定程度的风险资产疲软和美元的走强。

如果是一次“鸽派”的降息,他们的评论无论是关于数据是否有改善还是关于关键问题(如贸易争端)是否有改观,美联储都将被牢牢锁定在9月份再次的降息中。随着短期利率的下降,我们预计今年下半年和明年年初将出现更为陡峭的曲线,市场通过定价期望更多次降息,同时伴有风险资产改善和美元走弱的态势。

事实上,全球许多国家的增长前景在这个时刻并未得到改善,经济显示出疲软的迹象,这是美联储成员在上周末进入缄默期之前提到的。

虽然50个基点的降息不是我们的基本立场,但也不应该排除在外,20%到30%的可能性还是有的。超那个方向移动的任何举动都将导致曲线的进一步陡峭,并且应该看到风险资产的强烈反弹和美元的进一步疲软。

看情况发展吧,祝(大家)好运。   

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