每日新闻更新 —令人惊讶的工业活动和非农就业数据 The Daily Update – Ouch factory activity and NFP

今天早上,德国的工厂订单出现进一步下跌,让市场更加失望,本月下跌的幅度为2.2%,而市场的预期仅为负0.2%。虽然从历史的角度看这不过是动荡时期的一个片段,但它确实从某种程度上证实了目前的经济衰退已经不再是暂时的事件。理事会成员奥利·雷恩(Olli Rehn)对这种情况进行的总结是,经济增长已经“明显放缓”。报告显示,(德国)国内的订单增长0.7%,但出口和投资商品订单大幅下降,尤其是来自中国的订单和对汽车的需求持续乏力。本周早些时候,我们了解到,工业活动已经连续第六个月在收缩。欧元走弱,10年期德国国债徘徊在欧洲央行存款利率水平,即负0.4%,目前市场越来越强的预期是,欧元区存款利率最早在本月初将再次下调20个基点并重新启动欧洲央行对债务的购买。

现在转到今天的“主要事件”,那就是美国的非农就业数据(NFP)的话题。市场在迫不及待地期待并寻找美联储是否要在7月底的下一次会议上采取行动的线索。5月份的最后一次非农就业数据令人失望,只有75,000个新工作岗位,远远低于预期,但被修正为72,000,原因是6月份发布的数据较强,为224,000,而且两个月的修正值为减11,000,这样一来,两个月的平均值约为15万,对于目前被拉长的扩张期来说,(这些数字)还是相当强劲的。平均每小时工资增加了0.2% ,成为债券市场的另一个利好因素,使得同比数字从3.2%下降至3.1%。劳动参与率和失业率均上升了0.1%,分别达到62.9%和3.7%。

似乎这些强劲的数据应该消除市场对降息50个基点的呼声,但鉴于美联储在8月份没有会议召开,所以仍然可能会有25个基点的降息。7月份过后,下一次会议在9月18日召开,之前我们还有两次非农就业数据要参考。当然,在此期间,贸易摩擦和总统的参与也可能会对此产生巨大影响。 

尽管债券市场预期接下来今年的利率会低得多,但我们还不得不依赖美国利率的数据。通胀目前并不令人担心,长期债券“仍然是获利的机会所在”。

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