每日新闻更新 — 利率、美联储和一场噩梦 The Daily Update – Rates the Fed and a nightmare

对于美联储在7月31日的会议上降息50个基点的概率,昨天市场从之前的35%增加到了44%。这是在四位美联储成员发言的背景下发生的,为美联储可能采取的行动提供了进一步的线索。在这次会议开始前两周看到美联储发言人这样“唠叨”是正常的,因为明天中午12点一到,所有成员都会进入“停止发言期”,直到会议结束之后才允许发表进一步的评论。             

按计划,今天只有一位发言人,那就是布拉德(Bullard),但昨天引起轩然大波的其实是美联储成员威廉姆斯(Williams )。他发表了极度温和的评论,这些评论一度使得两年期美国国债的收益率下降了5个基点,就在几分钟之内收益率曲线戏剧性地变陡。(他的)评论包括:“要随时保持警惕以防患于未然,也就是说,加快行动以增加货币刺激措施,要不到时候后悔都来不及”,在谈到通货膨胀的时候,他说,“我担心通胀预期可能会被定得过低,我们将来可能会看到这样的情况,而这样的情况我们在其他国家其实已经看到了”。

我们在斯特拉顿街没有什么停止发言期,所以我们会在7月31日的会议之前继续发表我们的看法。从过去的情况来看,我们认为降息25个基点是最大的可能。

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