每日新闻更新 — 数据表现得更有力,但降息依旧会发生 The Daily Update – Stronger data but still a rate cut

昨天我们从美国获得的经济证据要强于市场预期,零售销售增长了0.4%,不包括汽车和天然气在内的核心销售6月份上涨0.7%,远高于12个月的趋势。这次发布的数字再加上对前几个月的上调使得该季度的涨幅达到了2005年以来的最高水平。工业生产也意外地出现上行,由于低利率环境的推动,NAHB住房指数小幅上涨。然而,进口价格本月再次下跌0.9%,同比下降2%,这表明通胀前景仍然温和无力。面对消费者的坚强表现,许多经济学家正在提高他们对第二季度GDP的预测。

但这是否会改变美联储在月底降息的可能性呢?我们并不这么认为,因为美联储关注的是日益减弱的全球经济增长,以及贸易摩擦和持续低通胀前景带来的风险;尽管许多观察人士坚持认为50个基点的下调才是合理的,我们仍旧期待会有25个基点的降息。

昨天有三位美联储委员发了言;鲍威尔主席重申了最近的观点:在不确定性增加的环境下,美联储将采取适当的行动来应对,并采取适当行动维持经济扩张。美联储有投票权的委员埃文斯(Evans)表示,到年底削减50个基点对提振通胀可能会非常合适;而非投票委员卡普兰(Kaplan)则表示,来自债券市场的信号可能需要我们确保采取降息的措施,但潜在的降息“应该是有限的,应该有所节制”。上周的时候,有一位有投票权的名字叫布拉德(Bullard)的知名鸽派成员曾经说,他认为50个基点的削减将会“过分”。

我们认为,由于美联储8月份不举行会议,9月份的会议直到9月18日才召开,从目前的环境来看,这两次会议之间的间隔显得过长,因此降息25个基点是板上钉钉的事情。美联储当然可以在两次会议之间采取行动,但这会向市场发出错误的信号并引发恐慌,而不是赶在曲线(发威)之前实施控制和规划。

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