每日新闻更新 — 对收益率的追逐仍在继续 The Daily Update – The search for yield continues

在全球范围内,大约有13.4万亿美元的债券现在都以负收益率进行交易,因此当大家看到沙特阿拉伯王国不失时机地利用欧洲的低利率来实现资金基础多元化并以30亿欧元的双债券发行进入市场的时候并不会大吃一惊。这两种债券分别是8年期、息票利率为0.75%的债券和20年期、息票利率为2%的债券。毋庸置疑,这次债券的发行被严重地超额认购,最终账面超过了145亿欧元:毕竟沙特阿拉伯被穆迪/惠誉评为A1/A+,这种以欧元计价的8年期债券的收益率为0.782%,跟类似评级的以欧元计价的主权债券相比要合算地多。例如,斯洛伐克(穆迪/惠誉的评级为A2/A+)的2027年到期、息票利率为1.375%的债券的收益率为-0.15%,爱尔兰TSY(穆迪/惠誉评级为A2/A+)的2029年到期、息票利率为1.1%的债券的收益率为0.07%。

这次债券的发行的好处在于使用了欧元作为基础货币,因为它避免了大量源于以美元计价证券的对冲成本,尽管必须流出更大的余地让以美元为基础的投资世界的利率有一定的下降空间。以欧元为基础的投资者的年化3M美元对冲成本约为2.8%,这侵蚀了来自以美元计价的沙特国际的2028年到期、息票利率为3.625%的债券(收益率为3.01%)的相当一部分收益率。

如果了解到这一背景,在投资者四处寻找什么领域有正收益率、谁的基本面和估值有吸引力的时候,当人们看到上个月海湾合作委员会的债券市场再次表现强劲的时候,就不会感到惊讶了。对于海湾合作委员会固定收入市场来说,这种特点就表现得更为突出,大家知道,在这个市场中,更多的(海湾合作委员会)国家被纳入该指数起到了提高投资者意识的作用。例如,卡塔尔国(穆迪/标准普尔评级为Aa3/AA-)发行的主权债券,如2040年到期、息票利率为6.4%的债券,目前在以3.5%左右的收益率进行交易,根据我们的模型,这一交易价格便宜得只有大约2.7个信用刻度。还有一些准主权债券的发行看起来也很有吸引力,例如阿布扎比原油管道(标准普尔和惠誉评级均为AA)的2047年到期、息票利率为的4.6%的债券正在以大约3.7%的收益率进行交易,根据我们的模型,这一交易价格便宜得只有大约4.2个信用刻度。 

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