每日新闻更新 — 小心美国人逃之夭夭 The Daily Update – Watch out for fleeing Americans

今天NatWest市场发布的一份有趣的报告分析了美国投资者对美元的价值产生的影响以及美元价值的波动。根据美联储的数据,美国基金经理持有85万亿美元的流动性资产,使全球央行12万亿美元的储备和5万亿美元的主权财富基金相形见绌。

在这85万亿美元中,12万亿美元是外国资产,约占14%,自20世纪70年代以来,这个比例就一直在稳步增长,而当时的外国资产仅占总资产份额的2%。下边举个例子来说明这一流量对市场定价的影响:2017年美国投资者增加了7150亿美元的外国资产,这添加到了美国当年4490亿美元的经常账户的赤字之上,这当然削弱了美元的价值。事实上,美元指数(DXY)或贸易加权美元指数从2017年初的104下跌至2018年初的88。2008年,美国投资者减少了5640亿美元的外国资产,基本上为当年7110亿美元的经常账户赤字提供了资金,导致美元上涨。

该报告认为,美国的美元多元化具有削弱美元的潜在规模和范围。但是当投资者追求风险时这种货币往往表现不佳,而当投资者规避风险时这种货币往往会表现超常,上述的这种美元多元化(工具)低估了这种趋势。

因此,即使所有主权财富基金突然间在其投资组合中将其以美元计价的总资产的份额降低了20%,哪怕美国基金经理同时将其总资产的1%以上从美元中分散出来,那么美元就将遭遇同等程度的负面影响。

在过去的二十年中,美元从中央银行总储备的72%下降到今天的62%左右,然而,大大超过这一数额的是来自美国投资者的资金涌入,特别是当投资者在压力时期寻求回笼资金的时候。

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