每日新闻更新 — 冰冻三尺非一日之寒,违约200年的阿根廷能在两年内痛改前非? The Daily Update – Argentina - 200 Years of Defaults and 2 Years Hoping for Something Different

一个熟悉的传奇故事再次发生,在令人沮丧的总统初期选举结果揭晓后,阿根廷的违约概率又飙升至75%以上(5年),这使得大部分市场惊慌失措。阿根廷总统莫里西奥·马克里(Mauricio Macri)(原来的风云人物)在昨天的投票中被阿尔贝托·费尔南德斯(Alberto Fernández)及其竞选伙伴(前总统)克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯·德基什内尔(Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner)击败,双方的得票率分别为32%和47%。这一结果导致市场对该国债务的大量抛售,继而立即使得信贷违约掉期价格翻了一番。如果在十月份的投票中费尔南德斯和基什内尔获得选民的支持,(民粹派)正义党就有可能重新上台,在各方逐渐消化这种可能性的时候,股票和比索也相应下跌。在过去10年间,阿根廷比索兑美元汇率从4以下降至45左右,通货膨胀率目前在50%左右;从昨天起,该货币对美元的汇率一度飙升至62,现在是53,购买力比十年前减少了14倍。现在让我们回想一下,阿根廷80%的债务都是外币,由此人们看到阿根廷的问题是多么具有爆炸性。

自从1816年独立以来的大约200年间,阿根廷的国际债务违约率不低于7次(国内债务为5次)。第一次违约是在1827年,而最近一次是在2014年(继2001年的违约后不可避免的事件),在这次的违约中,持有2005年和2010年重组债券的“钉子户”债权人赢得了官司,所以当阿根廷在2014年7月30日对这个重组债券付款之后,此事就算了结了。

2015年11月,刚当选的总统莫里西奥·马克里走马上任,他迅速尝试改革,并与“钉子户”债权人进行谈判,在2016年2月他们之间达成了一份协议,最终解决方案将在他上任的第一年落实。因此2017年成了阿根廷年,摩根士丹利与摩根大通等机构从(这一年的)1月份开始就将阿根廷重新引入其基准指数。为了不再浪费时间(在基本上被堵在国际债务市场之外15年之后),到2017年6月份的时候,马克里利用市场的乐观情绪迫不及待地设法发行了100年期的债券,息票为7.125%,定价为90.00美元(我们为此决定卖出买权)。如果这个国家要回归到以前的政治和经济传统,债券持有人若使用历史上违约的平均数进行计算,那么应该预见到在这一批债券成熟之前将有大约六次违约。该债券自从发行以来,交易价格一直就没有超过其发行价,直接受马克里带来的乐观情绪(除此之外基本上没有别的因素)的影响,平均价格在74美元左右,而在昨天,当初选的结果出现一边倒的情况后,该价格下跌至57美元以下,且价差已经超过1000。

相比之下,昨天惠誉将俄罗斯升级为BBB,前景稳定,理由是“强劲的财政和外部资产负债表”以及可以帮助应对持续发生的制裁风险的“不断加强的政策组合”。穆迪和标准普尔维持对该国的Baa3/BBB-投资级别的评定,目前比惠誉低了一个节点,但(惠誉)多出这一节点的NRSRO(全国认可的统计评级机构)的积极变化挑战了那些担心目前的制裁可能会导致一次潜在的降级的人群。

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