每日新闻更新 — 冰冻三尺非一日之寒,违约200年的阿根廷能在两年内痛改前非? The Daily Update – Argentina - 200 Years of Defaults and 2 Years Hoping for Something Different

一个熟悉的传奇故事再次发生,在令人沮丧的总统初期选举结果揭晓后,阿根廷的违约概率又飙升至75%以上(5年),这使得大部分市场惊慌失措。阿根廷总统莫里西奥·马克里(Mauricio Macri)(原来的风云人物)在昨天的投票中被阿尔贝托·费尔南德斯(Alberto Fernández)及其竞选伙伴(前总统)克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯·德基什内尔(Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner)击败,双方的得票率分别为32%和47%。这一结果导致市场对该国债务的大量抛售,继而立即使得信贷违约掉期价格翻了一番。如果在十月份的投票中费尔南德斯和基什内尔获得选民的支持,(民粹派)正义党就有可能重新上台,在各方逐渐消化这种可能性的时候,股票和比索也相应下跌。在过去10年间,阿根廷比索兑美元汇率从4以下降至45左右,通货膨胀率目前在50%左右;从昨天起,该货币对美元的汇率一度飙升至62,现在是53,购买力比十年前减少了14倍。现在让我们回想一下,阿根廷80%的债务都是外币,由此人们看到阿根廷的问题是多么具有爆炸性。




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