每日新闻更新 — 全球的PMI和(美国的)NFP The Daily Update – Global PMI'S and NFP

继今天上午瑞士的数据公布之后,7月份的采购经理人指数(PMI)制造业报告现已公布。一方面,七月份的读数比六月份要好一点(实际上,说没有原来那么糟糕可能更为合适),其中14个国家的绝对数字更高一些(跟6月份的10个国家相比要好一些)。较上个月有所下降的国家数目(从一个月前的26个)下降至19个。在八国集团中,有4个国家报告称其数据高于上个月(加拿大、意大利、日本和俄罗斯),有3个国家报告称其数据低于上个月(法国、德国和美国),而英国则没有变化。 

另一方面,就关键水平50而言(高于=扩张,低于=收缩),现在低于50水平的国家有22个(一个月前为20),而高于该水平的国家有14个(上次为16)。在八国集团中,只有两个国家超过50(加拿大和美国)。德国再次疲软,在所有36个报告国家中排名倒数第二,欧元区作为一个整体小距离尾随其后,接下来紧随其后的是英国。中国上升至49.9,在过去6个月当中,持续在50水平左右徘徊。尽管昨天的报告显示标题ISM数字下降至51.2(自2016年9月以来的最低水平),美国仍然位居榜首。有趣的是,该报告的Markit版本显示该数据为50.4,略高于关键的50水平。

今天的明星数据要数7月份的非农就业人口报告(NFP),其标题数字为16.4万,而预期为16.5万,但因为有对两个月的-4.1万的修正,使得上个月的数据高于预期,跟公布之前发布的预测更加吻合。失业率稳定在3.7%;平均每小时收入有0.3%的小幅增加,使得同比增长率从预期和之前的3.1%上升至3.2%。一份坚挺的非农就业报告证明了25个基点的降息是正确的,而不是边界外的50个基点。 

昨晚美国国债市场出现了一段泡沫时间,因为受特朗普总统发布的进一步征收贸易关税的推文的影响,出现了一个降低风险资产的举措,不过,市场在疯狂了一周之后,今天慢慢地归于平静。

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