每日新闻更新 — 阿根廷和德国的经济现 The Daily Update – Argentina and German ZEW

在阿根廷债务市场崩溃之后,似乎一些最大的新兴市场基金也受到了崩盘的残酷冲击,当天的回报率下降到了3.5%。许多人从今年年初到今日为止的回报率还不足1%。现在的问题是,他们是否要要在这个时刻买入,我们认为不是。美国经济衰退的前景概率越来越大,如果这种情况在未来十二到十八个月内真的出现,我们认为,您最不应该投资的地方就是评级较低的资产,因为如果利差扩大,投资者就会受到惩罚;因此我们的立场是,要在更长期限以及更高评级的资产上投资。

昨天的新闻都是围绕经济数据展开的,因为美国消费者物价指数(CPI)略高于预期,而德国的经济现状(ZEW)指数却处于灾难性水平。

美国消费者物价指数(无论是总体还是除食品和能源之外的其它产品)均上涨0.3%,虽然人们认为数据中会有一些来自关税的影响,但市场的基础面还是坚挺的。总体通胀率从原来的1.6%同比上升至1.8%,核心通胀率从2.1%上升至2.2%。由于汽油价格上涨了2.5%,能源价格仍然强劲,但二手车的价格、服装和医疗保健产品也表现出了惊人的强势。

最后看一下德国的经济现状报告。目前经济状况的指数为-13.5,原来的预期是-6.3,这已经足够糟糕,但更为糟糕的是,本来预期就不高的-28的预期指数从前几个月的-24.5发展到了-44.1。在制造业出现如此明显疲软的背景下,难道德国真的需要一个硬脱欧?我们不这么认为。

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