每日新闻更新 — 不要站在失控的火车前面 The Daily Update – Don't stand in front of a runaway train

随着收益率在整个曲线上走高几个基点,昨天美国国债市场暂停下来喘了口气。发生这种情况的催化剂是一次无力的拍卖,这次拍卖的是270亿美元的10年期国债,尾盘为1.7个基点。这就意味着这个月的10年期国债拍卖的水平比上个月低了40个基点,因此投标人表现出一些犹豫应该是预料之中的事情。毋庸置疑,这条曲线的定价仍然在期待今年美联储要降息一个完整的50个基点。

关于美联储,特朗普总统加强了他的攻势,他说“又有三个中央银行降息了。我们的问题现在不是中国,我们比以往任何时候都更加强大,我们的问题是有一个太过骄傲又不承认自己的行动太快且收紧太多这一错误的美联储。他们必须更大幅度并更快速度地降低利率,他们现在就要停止他们荒唐的定量紧缩。他又说道,“收益率曲线变化的幅度太大,也没有通货膨胀!看到别人的无能是件难堪的事情,特别是当问题轻而易举地就可以搞定的时候。”他还表示,“如果美联储能够明白我们正在与其他国家竞争,事情就容易得多了,所有国家都想以牺牲我们为代价把事情做好,可是美联储就是不懂这个道理!”

由于8月份美联储没有会议,下一个重大事件是每年一次的(8月)22日至24日的杰克逊·霍尔年度会议,因此,我们预计市场将受到贸易局势发展的影响,但目前看来似乎没有任何改善的迹象。因此,即使最近几个交易日的曲线收益率大幅下降,我们也要特别警惕当前的反弹慢慢成为镜花水月。“不要站在失控的火车前面”,话音刚落,不禁又想起另外一句,“不要试图去抓住一把落地的刀”。事实上,太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO )今天警告说,美国国债收益率可能会出现负值。鉴于目前的前景,我们认为这种可能性并不大,但如果你想登上新闻的头条(当然也会激怒总统),那么这是一个非常好的声明。

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