每日新闻更新 — 贸易对抗升级 The Daily Update – Escalation

随着有关中国政府要求国有企业暂停从美国进口农产品的新闻报道,美中贸易战在一夜之间进一步升级。这似乎是对特朗普上周四宣布的对另外3000亿美元中国进口产品增加10%关税的提议的报复。

自7月底(撰写本文时)以来,美国国债价格飙升,长期债券价格上涨超过5点,而股票市场到今天早上为止继续下跌约1-2%。

一个更令人担忧的迹象是,人民币兑美元汇率突破了7的心理承受水平。在贸易谈判早期的时候,双方之间似乎还有一种默契,那就是人民币将保持稳定。保持汇率稳定一直是特朗普的关键要求,因为使用汇率获取不公平优势的做法,他不仅对中国进行了攻击,而且还对欧洲和日本进行了攻击。除非中国人民银行果断地采取行动以防止人民币进一步疲软(中国的利率没有随着美国的利率下降而下调),否则这项举动的连锁影响将远远超过美元兑人民币的汇率。 

随着日元升值和负债国家(例如澳大利亚、新西兰、巴西、印度尼西亚)的货币疲软,这正在形成一场经典的质变之旅。因为很难看出这场贸易战最终如何收场(如果有朝一日能够结束的话),人们能够得出的结论只能是全球增长将再次遭受打击。债券市场正在发出经济将要出现问题的信号,只是美联储还有进一步降息的空间。然而,世界经济就像一个超级油轮,掉一次头需要很长时间才能完成。所以说,即使美联储从现在开始拼命地采取放松政策,可能已经为时已晚,经济衰退在所难免。该发生的事件可能会以一种意想不到的方式慢慢发生,但目前看来,美国多半将在12-18个月内陷入经济衰退,同时许多出口导向型经济体已经明显表现出经济紧张的迹象。   

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